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The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 276:
Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran. Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out. (more…)
I confess to being very flummoxed right now, because I am bearish on gold and bullish on companies that mine the stuff. So I’m hanging on to my GLD short – indeed, it’s my one and only substantial short position – as well as my GLD puts – and yet I bought GDX calls this morning.
I was talking about the cluster of support levels in the 1768-80 SPX area yesterday morning and the low was at 1773. That has tested the weekly 20 and 50 MAs, and is a second retest of broken wedge resistance. There is a little play left in this support area but if we aren’t to see a much larger correction develop then this is the likely reversal area. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
I was talking about the cluster of support levels in the 1768-80 SPX area yesterday morning and the low was at 1773. That has tested the weekly 20 and 50 MAs, and is a second retest of broken wedge resistance. There is a little play left in this support area but if we aren’t to see a much larger correction develop then this is the likely reversal area. SPX weekly chart:
It may be that the short term low is now in, though I would say that my target at the possible rising channel trendline from 1646 has not yet been hit. if we were to now see a test of yesterday’s low that would open up a possible hit of that trendline and would deliver positive divergence on the 60min RSI. That may not happen but it would be a tidier low. SPX daily chart: (more…)
The SPX daily bollinger bands have narrowed considerably over the last few weeks, until yesterday morning there were less than thirty points between the upper and lower bands. This compression is a pinch, and these pinches will generally resolve into a move one way or the other that will ride the upper or lower band for several days. If the larger double-top on SPX breaks down today then that should play out to the downside. (more…)
