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Gold itself doesn’t look like it has reached a bottom, but miners are getting awfully close. We’ve closed the gap, and we’re making steady progress toward that supporting trendline. If it breaks $22.81, forget it; then the bear market in miners will resume. But I’m inclined to think we’re approaching a buy point.
Excerpted from the 31 page NFTRH 283 (dated 3.23.14), which also thoroughly analyzed the precious metals and several other markets from a technical standpoint.
Gold’s Macro Fundamentals
I haven’t been trading gold or miners for a couple of weeks, but I’ve been watching it tumble recently with interest. My opinion is that miners are getting near a couple of strong areas of support, and I suspect GDX will put the brakes on at about $24.
Today is a very important day on SPX. Yesterday the bulls rallied it all the way back up to range resistance at 1874/5, the level seen at the last two rally highs and the neckline for what looks a lot like an IHS, but isn’t because the decline into it is too short. Nonetheless if that level is 1874/5 level is broken the ‘IHS’ target in the 1910 area will most likely be made. Looking at ES we may will see a gap over that resistance at the open, and as long as bulls can avoid that opening gap being filled, I would see that as bullish confirmation that the next move up towards my 1965 target from last June has now started. I have rising channel resistance in the 1910-20 area and rising steadily. If we see a big fail at this resistance today then my alternate bear H&S scenario is still in play on a break below the rising channel. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
In a post on Wednesday (“Gold’s Bull Market”), Tim highlighted a breakout in the chart for the gold-tracking ETF GLD. Last month, Tim noted he was bullish on gold miners as well in the longer term, though they could face a pullback in the shorter term. For those long the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), here are a couple of ways to hedge it over the next several months. (more…)
