Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
SPX tested the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and as with Wednesday, there was then a sustained rally to a lower high (so far). The SPX daily middle band is obviously a significant support level, but there should be more downside coming if the bears can put a whole day together. SPX daily chart:
Back on 22nd January I posted a chart showing that the falling channel on GDX from 54.18 had broken up and wondered aloud whether the precious metals bear market was bottoming out. That low was supported by very powerful positive divergence on the weekly RSI that I would normally associate with a major low. That low has held since and GDX has put in a higher high and (most likely) low since then, although that would also generally be the case on a bear flag of course, and that is always a possibility for a shallowly rising channel coming off a steep decline. If GDX can break over falling channel resistance from the high, currently in the 34 area, that should confirm a major low. GDX weekly chart: (more…)
The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding. Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.
SPX punched over the weekly upper band again on Friday for the second punch above the band in the last three weeks,. I don’t want to overemphasize this as a topping signal, but it goes without saying that these punches tend to happen when SPX is looking rather overbought, and on the four previous examples that I have marked on the chart below from the 2011 low, none rose significantly further before a consolidation or retracement period lasting four weeks or more. This would not generally be a place to look for a strong push upwards.
In terms of the primary rising channel, the high on Friday at 1963.91 was just short of my 1965 wedge targets, and was a test of primary rising channel resistance. I had a look at this using the thinnest possible trendlines over the weekend and there is very little play left in the trendline. Even a move to 1970 now would risk breaking it. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
