Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold’s Trendline

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You will have to forgive me for a very short post because (a) I am usually spoiled to have Jack to a nice long post in the morning (b) my fingers are ice-cold from my pre-dawn dog walk, and I can barely type. Anyway, as delighted as I am to see gold’s strength, I would caution precious metals buffs that it is simply pushing up against its broken trendline, precisely as it did last Friday. I’m not trading precious metals at all these days, but I at least wanted to chime in with this sobering reality in the face of a nice double-digit pop this morning.

1230-gcg

Bears Will Be Bears

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Another classic V shaped day with a very strong gap down where the gap was filled by the close. Pretty much par for the course for the feeble bears of 2014 and unlike the low on Monday last week, the low yesterday is a decent candidate for a post 5 DMA run retracement low.

Yesterday morning I gave my target range on SPX for this retracement as 1995-2033, with a likely retracement low time area between yesterday and tomorrow with an ideal low made today. Yesterday’s low was at 2034.17, so that was effectively a hit of the target range, within the target time window. I’m counting that stat as played out now, and any further downside is a bonus before the continuation upward that I am expecting.

On the daily chart the low yesterday was two points above the lower band, which I count as a hit, and the close was two points above the middle band, which I count as a hit of the middle band rather than a break back above it. We may see a reversal back down here at the middle band, but if we see a close (3+ points) back above that today the break back up should be respected. There are still open daily sell signals, but they won’t be invalidated unless RSI breaks back above the higher of the divergent RSI highs, and after this retrace we could run up to over 2100 without invalidating these. SPX daily chart: (more…)

The Way Is (Probably) Shut

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SPX made yet another marginal new high yesterday making a total of five new all time highs over the last two weeks, all in the 2070s within a total range of less than six points. That’s a lot of effort from the bulls to fail to get get over what has so far been extremely stiff resistance. In the event that the bulls are unable to push through this resistance , or spike through but can’t sustain trade over the 2070s, there is now a very nicely formed pair of nested double tops lighting a path down to a retest of broken resistance at the 2019 high. SPX 5min chart:

141205 SPX 5min Nested Double Tops

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Huey, Dewey & Louie

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huey.dewey.louieLooking around the gold sector at some of those who have tried to keep ’em bullish all the way down. The peddlers of hope are irrepressible.

Huey writes that gold stocks are well supported by the enormous expansion in the global gold jewelry business. In fact, according to Huey Western mining stock shareholders stand to reap substantial reward from the relentless growth in gold jewellery demand.

Do you hear that? Not just have an end put to their misery but if they will just hang in there a while longer they will be in line for a substantial reward… all due to a supposed fundamental underpinning that has nothing to do with the investment case for gold miners… and is not nearly the best driver for gold either. Keep bafflin’ ’em with bullshit Huey. All the way down… unbelievable. (more…)