Given gold’s grinding bear market (September 6, 2011 through December 17, 2015, a period of over four years) , it’s not surprising that investors don’t trust the strength that gold found over the past couple of months. After all, there have been plenty of counter-trend rallies over that long, grinding drop.

My view, however, is that the February16th breakout above the channel I’ve drawn made a lasting directional change. The monster surge we saw last week had to be digested somewhat (such as yesterday), but I truly think we’re in a new bull market for gold, and the fake-out moves are going to be in the downward direction, as opposed to upward.

During yesterday’s amazing rush-up on gold (making Q1 2016 the best quarter for gold in thirty YEARS, and we’re not even halfway into the quarter yet!) I did a post stating I was shorting the miners into the strength (in dollar terms. Heh.) To be specific, I am short GDX (big), RGLD (small), and SLW (small). Judging from pre-market action, that looks like a good move.

To be clear, however, just as I think a bear market in equities started last year, I believe a bull market in gold has begun as of just a couple of months ago. We’ve escaped the channel, and once we get a little selling, I think we’re in for a push higher.