Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

One More Heave …… Probably

By -

Stan and I are looking for a high this week, or next Monday at the outside, but there’s a possibility that the high might already been in. SPX has been chopping above and below the daily middle band for a week or so now and if SPX should make a conviction break down from it the high might well be in. There are already very nice looking double top setups here on both NDX and RUT. We’re leaning higher first for a number of reasons, but they may not deliver. This is a week to be cautious about getting married to any longs.

One of the reasons we are looking higher here is the triangles forming on SPX and NQ particularly. That triangle is still forming on SPX, as you can see looking at the triangle on the RSI 5. This kind of triangle would generally complete, break up, and then do a thrust up out of the triangle that would open be the final move up in a sequence. SPX daily chart:

161003 SPX Daily

(more…)

De Nada

By -

The bears didn’t have a good day yesterday, with a larger than expected decline on the indices, and clear breaks at the RTH on SPX close back below the daily middle band, the 50 hour MA and the 5dma, and ES losing the key weekly pivot area at 2152.25 that I highlighted as a key close area on a tweet yesterday afternoon. With the historical stats for the last day of September leaning 75% bearish, and the indices resting on key support levels the odds of the ATH retest on SPX that Stan and I have been looking for definitely looking lower, and you can see that reflected in the tone of my comments last night on the charts below.

Overnight though the picture changed entirely, with marginal new lows and 60min buy signals fixing on ES, NQ and TF, and with a triangle confirmed on NQ and a perfect bull flag channel established on TF. On my premarket video for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net today I was leaning strongly bullish, and I’ve not seen anything since then to change that view. I’m thinking 50% odds or better that SPX trends up today. The direct link to that video is here. Hopefully some of you saw that when I posted that link on twitter before the open today.

(more…)

Symmetry

By -

SPX made a marginal lower low yesterday as expected and then rallied back into main resistance at the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 2158/9, with the 5dma and 50 hour MA slightly above in the 2161/2 area. SPX closed a handle above the middle band but in practical terms I count a close less than two handles away from the band as a close on it.

One thing you often see in this kind of situation is a kind of symmetry where unusual setups can repeat several times in a short period and we might have a situation like that here. The last two times that the middle band was tested SPX gapped through it and at the open today SPX has gapped through it again. Both of the last two gaps were breakaway gaps that did not fill that day or the day after. We may see that again today and, if so, that would be a strong start to the ATH retest that we are expecting. SPX daily chart:

160928 SPX Daily

(more…)

Entering The High Window

By -

The high window opens on SPX today and runs through to Monday 3rd October. During this period Stan and I are expecting to see a very significant high made that would then be followed by a decline that would be considerably larger than the modest retracement just completed. We are looking for a likely full retest of the all time high, with an eye on higher targets in the 2203, 2206/7 and 2210 areas.

On the daily chart SPX confirmed the break back over the daily middle band with another close above it yesterday. This opens a possible test of the daily upper band, currently at 2202. I’d generally expect to see a retest of the middle band from above today or Monday, and that is currently in the 2161 area. SPX daily chart:

160923 SPX Daily

(more…)

‘Gold vs.’, Pre-FOMC

By -

We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.  In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.  Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets.  Below are two important ones.

Gold vs. Stock Markets has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year.  A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks.  A breakdown from the moving averages and it’s back to Pallookaville for the gold “community”.

(more…)