Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

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First published Sun Jan 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  Last weekend (Christmas weekend), I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly.  Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday (Dec 29) alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions.  But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.

In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either.  Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX.  As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.

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The Times They Are A Changin’

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2017 is likely to be an interesting year, and the tape has already shaken off the December cobwebs and is moving again. On the bigger picture the chart below is how I’m seeing SPX on the monthly chart here, and the key message is that the bull market from the 2009 low here is most likely topping out or has already topped, though that doesn’t mean that SPX will necessarily drop much in 2017. This has been an eight year bull market and if we see the retracement that I’m looking at on the chart below, then we may not see that bear market low until 2020/1. If we see that 50% retracement then that would be a beautiful fibonacci move, and should then set up a very nice long into the next bull market.

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NUGT Continues to Play Catch-Up

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After the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) satisfied our swing target of 7.00 off of the 12.15 Dec 20 lows (5.55-5.51), which represented a very important objective, NUGT’s ability to hurdle and to sustain above 7.00 argues that a more important, more powerful recovery rally is in progress.

This rally points next to a confrontation with NUGT’s Dec resistance line, which cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 7.90 this morning.

A sustained, upside penetration of the resistance line will exhibit additional evidence that NUGT and the Miners are in the grasp of an incomplete, powerful, recovery-rally period that has as its next target zone 8.60-9.25.

full-buRigTdfWAP0UCI5n1YdoOriginally published on MPTrader.com.

Gold in Euros Forecasting Gold’s Future?

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Gold vs. the Euro index can be a leader for gold in nominal terms.  I was reminded of this when reading an aside within Tom McClellan’s article Copper Leads the Way Lower for Bond Yields, posted at Biiwii.  His article was interesting to me because its thesis supports my view that long-term bond yields are due to decline.  But the aside about gold and euros got me pulling some charts for this post.

Au-XEU (daily) has declined to a support zone and retraced over 50% of the 2016 gain.

gold vs. euros (more…)