My stop loss…….34.41. I would normally do a post like this just for my beloved PLUS members, but I’m in a generous mood.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Metals Bottoming In The Upcoming Week?
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
First published on Saturday May 6 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Last week, I noted that we still likely have lower levels to strike in this complex, but that I expect the market to set up a bottom very soon. I still maintain that expectation as I write this.
In my last weekend update, I noted that we still needed to complete waves 3, 4 and 5 in this (c) wave of wave (2) in the GDX. We now have the minimal number of waves in place to the downside to consider it complete. However, we did not strike our ideal target of 20.31, where (a) would equal (c), nor did we see a full 5 waves up off the lows we struck this past week. So, since we do not have any confirmation that a bottom has, in fact, been struck, it leaves the door open for the market to still strike our target.
Metal Mania
Gold has been in a general downtrend for nearly six years now. There have been spurts here and there, of course, and those who play the leveraged instruments (DUST, JDST, etc.) in the right direction have been able to make fortunes (or get ground into hamburger). Let’s take a quick look at a few SlopeCharts of what’s happening out there.
First there is the junior miners. Short-term, this is on the low end of a descending channel, meaning that we could get a bounce higher in the days ahead. Longer-term, however, this trendline break is severe. I don’t think any bounce will get GDXJ any more than a few points.
Huey’s Looking Haggard These Days, But…
HUI is torn, frayed and downright bearish. What’s more, it’s been bearish since it started to drop from the SMA 200 failure point.
In NFTRH, we managed bounce #1 (off the Dec. low) as just that, a bounce. Then we managed bounce #2 as just that, a bounce. It doesn’t take a trained eye to see why; only a rise above the October high would have set an uptrend for bounce #1 and a rise above the February high would have set an uptrend for bounce #2.
The Complex is NOT in Alignment Yet
by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
First published Sat Apr 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive. And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective.
However, while GLD and silver can be counted as just completing their 5 wave structures, I want to warn anyone who is going to attempt to trade downside that we are setting up in the heart of a 3rdwave. That being the case, there is potential for the market to continue to melt up in the heart of that 3rd wave, which is actually the position we see in the GDX currently.
Silver seems to be chart that is most suggestive of needing a pullback in a wave 2. We just barely held support last week in a 4th wave, and made a higher high in this past week’s action, which has now given us 5 waves up off the March lows. That strongly suggests that silver “should” see a pullback, which I am counting as a wave 2.
