Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Goldilocks Now, Deflation Later

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The NFTRH view has been for a macro transition from inflation (past) to ‘Goldilocks’ (present) to deflation (later)

Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been dubbed a “Goldilocks” (inflationary pressures not too hot, not too cold) transition, as inflationary pressures ease (the inflation has come and gone, while it’s lagging supply chain and services related effects linger on) and the former inflation trades under-perform.

There is a word for what supply chain and related services are doing and it’s called “gouging” by opportunistic entities squeezing the inflation hysteria for all it is worth. But I digress.

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Smack Dab

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As I am typing this, the /ES is up over 70 points, and the bulls are, once again, prancing around and high-fiving each other. No problem! I am steadfastly maintaining my 20% cash balance. The only crazy position I’ve got is a bunch of SPY March 17th puts, which are at the moment down 46% (hey, they were down 62% before!). I find it quite interesting that the /ES is precisely at the 50 yard line, so to speak, between the two major Fibonacci retracement levels.

A Perfect Morning

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Perfect? Why would I say that? Every single index is up, and up big!

Well, it’s raining, for one thing. I’ve got the window open on this pitch-black morning, and the sound of the rain always pleases me. I guess it’s no shock that rain is my favorite kind of weather. I’ve got Bob Dylan’s Street Legal playing in the background, my dogs are here, my charts are here, and I’m feeling comfortable with the market. So I’ve shed some profits this morning. So what? They’ll come back.

The market’s ephemeral strength, of course, has come from the un-surprising CPI print, which caused the /ES to bounce (although not quite as high as its post-bailout peak, circled below).

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