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Let’s get serious about the semiconductor index. This beast has a perfectly good chance of completing a relatively small but spectacularly well-formed head & shoulders top. Indeed, it would take only one good down day, no more dazzling than Friday’s, to get the job done. I would like to offer unto you my target for such a measured move, tinted in green:
Well, the constant drift upwards is relentless. I thought September would bring some more decisive direction, but it took almost two weeks of chop to get anywhere. But now the direction seems to be up.
SPX Daily
(more…)Ever since the 30 year Treasury bond yield (one ‘top-down’ macro tool NFTRH uses to gauge the environment so that we may invest in, speculate upon or avoid certain situations, accordingly) broke its Continuum of pleasantly declining long-term Treasury bond yields, macro nerds have been called to task in order to correctly interpret the forward backdrop that this break implies. The note at the upper right of the chart asks the key question.
Now that the monthly CPI is out of the way, let’s take a look at 10 important index charts. I’ve got to say, these are collectively painting a rather exciting bearish picture.
The All World Index is still working on its miniature topping pattern, which is quite clean. if it can get below the low horizontal, the market as a whole is in serious trouble. I would also add that the semiconductor index is also sporting almost exactly the same pattern over the same timespan.
