2023 in a Single Image
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Since Independence Day
Let’s take a look at what the four major markets have done since early July of this year.
We begin with the /ES, which has made a series of three lower highs. I’ve put a dashed line indicating where the second one was, to illustrate the “Do Not Cross” level for present price levels. We are slightly about the Fibonacci right now, indicating support (albeit shaky).
Packing Fudged Data
I sure felt one whole hell of a lot better on Wednesday evening than I did on Tuesday evening. I recaptured a good chunk of what was lost on Tuesday. Part of the reason was my outsized position in bonds, which gave back much of their completely-fake-CPI-based gains.
An Important Non-Combatant
Well, once again, my interest in the market is matching the VIX these days. I’m starting to just not care anymore, focusing instead on my latest engineering project, which isn’t subject which made-up numbers from the federal government. All the same, duty calls, and I’d like to point out that the leader all year long, NVDA, seems oddly non-participatory in yet another All Green Day.
Russell Watching
Happy Friday, Slope! We made it through another week, and thankfully for the bears it has been a solid red week thus far. My primary focus remains on the Russell 2000. The chart of IWM is shown below. I will continue to highlight two areas. First, there is a significant POC cluster coinciding with value high this month that is serving as key resistance at the moment. That area is highlighted in red. Second, the October lows of last month are serving as key support. This support goes back to the pre-Covid highs. As we venture out into the remainder of November, I will give you three scenarios:
- The bullish scenario in my mind would involve IWM reversing back higher and breaking above value high at 177.2.
- I think key support for IWM going forward is going to be the October 2023 lows of 161.67. A consolidation scenario would involved retesting that low this month, but not breaking under it. This would allow for some consolidation of the past few months to take place as we head into the end of the year.
- The bearish scenario in my mind is to break under the October lows of IWM this month. This is a capitulation scenario in my mind. Under the October lows is a lot of open air for the bears to roam into. How far and how fast that happens is a choice I’ll leave to you.
