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Good morning, everybody. It looks like we’re heading for a second red day (hopefully) as every single asset class has done a perfect U-turn over the past week. The end-of-year exuberance has perhaps morphed into a dawning realization that things maybe aren’t so peachy.
Today has been shamefully devoid of original content by me. Before I head to bed, I wanted to fix that! Thus, below, I share a number of ETF charts and a few words about each of them, now that this first day of the trading year is behind us.
We begin with DBC, which is doing a yeoman’s job of sinking. It is approaching the lower half of its long-time descending channel, and I think energy is speaking truthfully to us about what’s ahead for the economy (as opposed to, let’s say, that four foot dwarf named Janet Yellen who ranks as one of the most vile and evil humans ever to be spawned on planet Earth, and whose very presence here is a curse to all decent men and women).
Today is the last trading day of 2023, and is the only significantly bearish leaning day this week. Historically the stats today indicate 38.1% stats for SPX closing green, and only 28.6% green closes on NDX. That doesn’t of course mean that the day will be particularly interesting, but intraday at least the last couple of days have been more interesting than I was expecting.
On the bigger picture, I was looking for a retest of the 2023 high on SPX to set possible daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing, and we saw that. The high this week so far is at 4793.30, just 25 handles below the all time high, and I’m still thinking that a decent retracement looks very close, and that SPX might make a marginal new all time high before we see that retracement.
Either way we appear to be setting up for an interesting January.
(more…)In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary fish in a barrel. The stock market rally – which NFTRH had anticipated a year ago on a larger basis and since October of this year for its next leg on a more compact time frame – is doing a wonderful job of holding to its seasonal pattern (see below). The rally is sucking in the holdout FOMOs who, one by one are falling for the dual pleasantries of a softening Fed and by extension, a Goldilocks-like “soft landing” scenario for the economy.
