Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Cards on the Table

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I was saying on my daily SPX chart yesterday that if we were going to see a move directly to the double top target at 1937.70, then I was expecting that move to start yesterday, and obviously that’s what we saw. The low yesterday was at 1941.7, and we may well make that full double top target today.

This move was an important point of recognition and I think it is likely now that the market is starting a 10% or more correction, though we haven’t yet had the full confirmation of that move that would come with a conviction break below the 1904 low on SPX. That 1904 level is the support level on a large double top that would target the 1789 area on a break below 1904, and that 1789 level is very close to both the 23.6% retracement level for the move up from October 2011, and rising support from that same low. (more…)

Breaking Glass

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I was saying on Friday morning that the bear case shouldn’t be written off yet and, well here we are. The bounce failed at the 50 hour MA and SPX made a new low, closing well below the daily middle band.

In terms of past RSI 5 / NYMO sell signals the situation is improved as the decline is now larger than two of the 29 sell signal declines back to the start of 2007, and I’d also note that SPX and Dow also made the 38.2% fib retracement levels at the low on Friday, if this turns out to be a wave 4 retracement. (more…)

At Night All Swans Are Grey

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I called the intraday turns on Friday very well, but was struggling to believe what I was seeing. The double top target at 1985 wasn’t made, with a failure at 1990 and a push up to close back at 2007. If we are to make a new high now from that low then that would be unprecedented among the eleven RSI 5 / NYMO daily sell signals going back to the start of 2012.

Looking back further however then there is one precedent for that among the twenty four signals going back to the start of 2007, and it’s not encouraging. That signal didn’t fail, by which I mean it didn’t go as high as the highest RSI 5 peak generating the sell signal, but SPX ran up almost another 4% before making the 2010 spring high. In this case the previous RSI 5 high is lower, but if that held again here SPX might still make it to the daily and weekly upper bands, both currently in the 2030 area, and possibly a bit higher. (more…)

The Way Is Not Shut

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Another day of dramatic seeming action with only a small final move on the daily close yesterday, marking a fifth day of consolidation since SPX made the 2005 high. The channel support trendline on WLSH and the megaphone support trendline on Dow broke at the lows yesterday, so all the support trendlines from the August lows have now been broken. That could mark a high being made right here, but the prospects for a move to primary resistance in the 2020-30 look pretty good unless bears can put a whole day together and break the current sequence of higher highs and lows on SPX. SPX daily chart:

140903 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs

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Geopolitical Risks

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Well we finally got the retracement I was looking for. It was shallow at 23.6% but the 1990 low established the rising channel from 1904 that I had been mentioning as a possibility since last week. Hopefully everyone saw that when I posted it on twitter after the low. There is still a possibility that a double top is forming at a test of the current highs, but I’m expecting another push up first. I think the next significant retracement will most likely be a significant high, or start the topping process for such a high. SPX 60min chart:

140829 SPX 60min Rising Channel from 1904

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