Interest – Page 83 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Quartet to Ponder

By Tim Knight - 11 years ago (03, Nov 2014 5:24:01 PM)

The past few days have been quite an emotional and price roller coaster. I’ve got one of my “deep thinking” posts tumbling around in my head that some people really like; whether or not I actually write it remains to be seen. So I’ll just do a low-thinking chart post.

One nifty way to look at where the big bounce has put us is the semiconductor index, which has been an important guide to market strength and weakness. It’s perfectly nailing the underside of its trendline, which is serving its role as resistance. This is a likely turning point.

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Interest Rates

By Tim Knight - 11 years ago (30, Oct 2014 10:00:22 AM)

Interest rates utterly collapsed at the equity market’s bottom on October 15th, and they have soared since then (as have, obviously, stocks). We are nearly a monstrous overhang at this point, however, and my view is that rates will resume their downward fall soon (with bonds, naturally, strengthening the whole while).

A Knife That Cuts Both Ways

By springheel_jack - 11 years ago (16, Oct 2014 6:34:58 AM)

The badgers were getting very angry yesterday and we saw wild swings on SPX, though in the end SPX closed at 1862, not far under the daily lower bollinger band at 1867. SPX daily chart:

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To Bounce or Not to Bounce?

By springheel_jack - 11 years ago (15, Oct 2014 6:19:53 AM)

Yesterday bounced hard, then retraced all of that bounce to make a marginal new low, and closed slightly up. The bounce has established the 200 DMA as resistance and was the fifth day out of the last six that SPX has closed well under the daily lower band. The lower band closed at 1883 yesterday and could close as low as 1965-70 today. SPX daily chart:

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And Now For Something Completely Different

By springheel_jack - 11 years ago (14, Oct 2014 6:13:17 AM)

I was asked yesterday morning why the tone of yesterday’s post was so bearish, and the reason was of course that I thought the odds favored a significant move down. We saw that move and both the SPX 200 DMA and main double top support broke down with a lot of conviction. The double-top target is the 1789 area and I’m expecting SPX should hit that target within a few days. The trend on the market has changed for the moment and while we will get some rallies, I won’t start looking seriously for a low here until we reach that 1789 target area. I’m not expecting to be waiting long for that.

I’ve been looking at my RSI 5 / NYMO daily buy signal that triggered at the 1970 high with some concern here, as it might have delivered a stronger rally than I’m expecting, but it failed at the close yesterday, so it is no longer a concern. That was the first outright fail from the signal trigger since the start of 2007, but there’s a first time for everything. It’s not unprecedented. Looking back further I found another fail in a strong downtrend in 2002. The timing of this signal was particularly annoying, but hey, that’s the market we trade in. SPX daily chart: (more…)