Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

John Maynard Keynes On The “Great Unwind” In Bonds

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For all of 2019, I have been watching one analyst after another suggesting investors “fade” the rally in bonds.  And, of late, these voices have been getting louder and louder, as I just read yet another article calling for the “Great Unwind” in the bond trade.

Well, folks, decades ago John Maynard Keynes noted about such people that the market can remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent.  And, 2019 has certainly proven the truth of Keynes’ perspective when it comes to the bond market.

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Bull vs. Bear Death Match: Why Q1 Operating Earnings are “Make or Break”

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Contributed by Hedge Fund Tips: In the past 30 years, we have had 7 instances of sequential S&P operating earnings drops of 6% or greater (data table below highlights sequential drops in yellow/red). In each case, it was not a positive – and a stock market correction reflected the downturn in economic activity.

There is a KEY distinction when referring to sequential operating earnings declines:

In 5 out of the 7 times, the sequential drop was limited to 1 quarter (SEE Blue Vertical Lines Above) – meaning the following quarter came in above the previous quarter where there was a precipitous operating earnings drop of more than 6% sequentially.

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