Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

After the Yield Curve Inversion

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As the 10yr-2yr yield curve inversion plays out, the time is coming for a turn in fortunes

Before proceeding, I’d like to remind you that this article is not written by a perma-bear. It is important to have credibility and indeed, NFTRH planned for a potential humdinger of a bear market rally back in Q4, 2022 based on the inputs of then extremely over-bearish sentiment, the bullish mid-term election cycle (which on average projects bullish for a year, post-election), a coming fade in inflation signals (with the attendant hopes for a softening Fed) being its primary elements. Here is one post discussing the rally in November, 2022.

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High Yield Spread

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Holy guacamole. Have I got a chart for you. What I did was took the high-yield corporate bond rate (for you Gold and Platinum folks, the symbol is FR:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY). I inverted it. Then I used a Layered Chart to put the S&P 500 on top of it. These two are normally quite closely-correlated. As you can see, the spread between them has become absolutely insane. Let’s just say equities aren’t priced where they should be.