I've been looking considering a possible multi-week bull scenario this week and that's very well summed up in the chart below which was posted on twitter yesterday by Gann360 (aka Joe8888), a chartist I admire. I've been using twitter a lot in recent months (username shjack666) but I originally signed up to twitter last year to follow Joe's charts there:
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Bouncing Hard (by Springheel Jack)
I'm going to concentrate mainly on equities today, with quick looks also at gold, treasuries and AUDUSD. On the SPX 30min yesterday's close wasn't yet at broken support in the 1170 area, though with ES now at 1174.5 as I write, we may well gap over that at the open. Worth noting is that no bounce since the August low has ended without hitting the RSI 70 line on the 30min chart:
Big Support Hits (by Springheel Jack)
Another interesting overnight session but I'll post charts for SPX, NDX and RUT today as well as the charts for other important markets. The overnight session is looking sharply higher at the moment and for a number of reasons I'm wondering about a strong move up. I'll explain more about that later on but here's the SPX 30min chart for the moment, showing the rough broken triangle there. There's some positive divergence on the 30min RSI (often a good indicator) and the obvious retracement target would be a retest of broken support in the 1170 area:
Bonds are Great. For Me to Poop On!
United We Fall (by Springheel Jack)
I'm a member of Pug's excellent subscription site and find his counts a very useful reference to use with my take on the markets, with my take almost entirely derived from trendlines and patterns so the comparison is a very useful cross-check.
Pug tends to lean slightly bullish while I tend to lean slightly bearish but Pug eliminated his last alternative bullish count last night, and we stand united in the strong expectation that we are going to see more downside.
Pug's main count for a while now has leaned more bearish than my expectation, as I'm seeing likely support in the 1000-1020 area, and Pug's looking at the same area as his highside expectation, but thinking we might go somewhat lower. Both of us are assuming that the world financial system won't collapse, which seems a decent assumption for another year or two at least at the moment. If you include Tim Knight, targeting the 1040-50 area, you have an odd reversal of the usual arrangement, with Tim being the most bullish, Pug being the most bearish, and myself, as before, between the two. Whoever is right we should see a number of decent signals as we approach the low, with likely positive divergence from Dr Copper and EEM when we reach it, and we'll all be watching for those signals.
