Interest Forecasting
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Yield Curve Steepener Thus Far Inflationary
The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it’s in progress and thus far mildly inflationary
Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11.
In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is exactly what the curve has been doing since the secondary inversion.
Bonds Back Better
Many times have I mentioned the importance of the bond rally terminating and, ideally, TLT being repelled by its broken trendline. Mercifully, this is precisely what has happened.
Yield Curve UNDEFEATED! (by LZ)
There’s no need to overcomplicate 2024. There is a single indicator with a perfect track record of recession, correction or bear market: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield.
Since everyone is familiar with the spread chart, I’ll show the ratio instead.
