Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Flagging Equity Markets

By -

In my last post on Friday 20th December I was looking at the very likely rally that I called that day in my video before the open and that we saw start that day on equity indices and Crypto, and I said the following then about that:

‘How long might this rally last? Well given that today is 20th December I’m thinking this rally may well take us into Xmas and fairly shortly thereafter into lower lows. We shall see. ‘

Obviously today is now 30th December, tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, and as I was saying on Friday 20th December, I was expecting the rally to fail into lower lows shortly after Xmas. That may well be in progress now.

(more…)

Famous Last Words

By -

Jerome Powell: “I think it’s pretty clear we’ve avoided a recession”

In response to a media member, who at Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we’ve avoided the recession that everyone [read: the media and its obsession with the supposed negative indications of the former Yield Curve inversion] was talking about a couple of years ago, the Fed chief replied without missing a beat. Not only have we avoided a recession, but it’s “pretty clear“.

“Pretty Clear”? I don’t think so. At least not in the direction you indicate. It is clear to me that the macro continues to swing toward the counter-cyclical, recessionary “bust” end of the spectrum. Below are two indications toward that. There are many other negative signals in play as well. But it’s only one article and I’ll update the two I consider among the most important to my macro analysis.

(more…)