Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
What’s Bigger Than a Bubble?
I spent a lot of time recently looking at the long-term index charts. We’re all familiar with the history of the Internet Bubble and the Housing Bubble. How gigantic they were, how they were fueled by puffery or outright lies, and how the housing bubble in particular was made possible through completely bogus credit ratings. Both of these prior bubbles were powered by Alan Greenspan and his multi-trillions of largesse, and they both had historic wipeouts.
But what struck me – – really, really stuck me – – was how PUNY those two bubbles were compared to the ascent we’ve seen over the past nine years. I mean……..just look at this!
Financial Cold War
As we crossed the finish line last week into the longest bull market in human history, a question that has been on my mind for years came bubbling to the surface again: if this is so easy, why didn’t the governments of the world do it before? In other words, since it’s been proved quite clearly that central bankers can prop up equity markets around the world, as well as public sentiment, why did it take them so long to figure it out?
Were they really that dim? Why would the governments, and all the self-interested individuals which comprise them, put themselves through the financial horrors of 2007/2008, the crash of 1987, the Internet bubble collapse of 2000, or the grinding equities-are-dead market that lasted the entire 1970s? It doesn’t make any sense.
(more…)Manafart
You’ve probably heard the hackneyed expression that you can judge someone based on how much you’d like to have a beer with them. This phrase became famous with George W. Bush, since it was often used as the explanation for his victory (via the Supreme Court) over Al Gore. The “likability” factor became the key to whether someone should lead us or not.
In my own life, I’ve always had a different metric which, for lack of a better term, I’ll just called the alone-on-an-island factor. In other words, I judge a person based on my prospects with them if we were shipwrecked on a deserted island in the middle of the ocean. Would they be a hindrance or a liability? Could I count on them? Would they kill me when I am asleep? In other words, in a society of TWO people, can the society behave with decency, harmony, and camaraderie?
One of the reasons I dedicated my latest book to Dutch is because he passes the “island” test with flying colors. I would hope that any of you, faced with the prospect of be stranded on an island with another human, would perceive me as a person of integrity and ingenuity and would likewise ascent to occupying the aforementioned dot in the sea with me, were we forced to do so. (more…)
RELEASED: Silicon Valley Babble On
I am delighted to announce the availability of a book that was a dozen years in the making: Silicon Valley Babble On. It is my 25th, and in all likelihood, the last book I’m ever going to write. I will try to describe it briefly……….and I want to ask early on, since this is a brand new book, I would be VERY grateful for any positive reviews you could leave on Amazon for others to read!
Before the financial crisis began, a community of traders was created which used charts, economic cycles, and political discourse to shape their investment decisions. This unique gathering place was named the Slope of Hope, coined after the maxim “markets climb a wall of worry and slide down a slope of hope”.
Over the course of a dozen years, Tim Knight wrote over 20,000 posts on Slope, and he has gathered up what he considers the best and most illuminating of these in Silicon Valley Babble On. Topics covered include startups and culture in the valley, the effects of the bubble and its aftermath, his own experiences building and selling high-tech businesses, lessons from the fast-paced world of equity trading, and life lessons drawn from personal experience. (more…)
