Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Volatility Ratio Follow Up: How Many Days to a Retracement High?

By -

I think it’s only natural after a decline like Oct 10-11, 2018 for people to ask themselves a variety of questions.  “Is the bottom in or not?”  “Should I buy now or is it going to roll over again?” and “If it is going to roll over, how far does price bounce before rolling over?”

The question I’m asking today is, “After a decline that coincides with a $VXV:$VIX ratio under .90, how long does it take for a retracement to be put in and price to start rolling over?”

Based on the conclusions of my previous post, the likelihood of another test of the lows in approximately two months time appears to be high, even after a retested low has been put established.  On the path to two months from now, however, we still have to navigate a market day to day.  The paths after the ratio low signal triggered varied so much, it’s hard to really come up with anything consistent and even if there was a pretty clear repeated path, I wouldn’t want to suggest that there weren’t other paths that price could take, even a path that’s never been taken before because anything can happen.  In most cases, the final peak before a decline to at least the first low if not a lower low (or bear trap) took 4-6 weeks to be reached.  In the near-term, however, they all had an initial peak relatively quickly which provided a boundary for a chop zone (trading in a range).  This is what I want to explore. (more…)

That He Which Hath No Stomach to this Fight

By -

I was debating with myself whether to send this post only to my Gold and Diamond members (whose numbers are now legion………..) or to the entire mass of Slopers. I was compelled to just throw open the kimono, since even at this moment the last post has hundreds of comments, and since this is the last post of the day, I don’t want you poor souls to have 500 comments on a post………..so – – even though our awesome Premium members keep this place open – – I’m going to just do a general distribution on this one.

I also want to thank those of you who are pests. I mean that in the most loving way possible. Some folks write me and ask me for THIS and ask me for THAT. But, see, I really like making products, and I like making them better, so I really appreciate when you folks tap me on the shoulder and ask me for something, because I’m the sort who will get kind of obsessed with finding whatever it is you’re asking for. It makes Slope better for everyone. So – – be a pest!

Anyway, on to the charts. These are all ETFs, and they all have the same message: it is time for the bears to rise again! We begin with the Industrial symbol XLI, which has broken its long term trend from 2009:

slopechart XLI (more…)

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

By -

Apparently everyone “knows” that the drop we saw in the first two weeks of October is going to be a repeat of what happened earlier this year on February 9th. I’d like to think of some broader possibilities. There are, of course, practically limitless possibilities for what the market will do next, but let’s consider four distinct general pathways. (Incidentally, it occurs to me that all of these are the S&P cash index, not the @ES, but I’m not about to relabel all of them!)

The first possibility is, again, what everyone “knows” will happen. That, for the 397th time, the stupid bears will be sucker-punched, and new lifetime highs are just a few weeks away. We’ll call this prospect “Alpha“:

alpha (more…)

Achieving the Impossible

By -

From time to time, I mention a disease I have that doesn’t seem to affect most people. It’s called “Blogger’s Guilt”. I feel an insatiable need to create content and tools for you.

Most other sites – – and I could name them, but some of them are ostensibly my friends, so I won’t – –  get away with maybe three posts a week and no tools at all. I, on the other hand:

  • Generate about 100 posts a week;
  • Have given you the greatest comments system in existence;
  • Have built the best charting platform on the web

And yet still I drive myself to do more. Every day. Even weekends. Into the night.

Having offered up an ungodly number of incredible ideas lately, I feel I am entitled to giving myself a two hour break. So I will do that. Because, as you can see below, it’s been a busy day.

If you want to share your gratitude, feel free to subscribe to a premium membership or sign up for the CMLViz TradeMachine Pro.

Share the love. I give it daily. I hope you feel it. Send it back my way.

TRADES