Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

On The Brink (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm going to post a lot of very bearish looking charts today. That doesn't mean that equities are about to fall off a cliff here, but it does mean that there is a real possibility that they will. The 2012 potential topping patterns I've been posting for weeks have now all completed forming more or less, and we are at the point of decision where we either rally, or break support to go considerably lower. That point of decision for me is 1340 SPX. If 1340 breaks that opens up a lot of downside, and if it holds then new highs for 2012 are still in play before a bigger correction in the summer. 

On the SPX 60min chart the sloping H&S I've been posting broke down and retested on the bounce yesterday. This is a very bearish setup unless the neckline can be recovered with confidence, and even then it looks ominous and would be reason for some caution on the long side. On a continuation down the target is in the 1290 area close to the October high at 1292.66:


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Confidence in Europe at Lowest Level since July 2009

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Data released on May 7th shows that Sentix Investor Confidence in Europe is now at its lowest level since July 2009, as shown on the graph below. Economic pessimism is accelerating.

Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health – investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity," this can only mean that economic conditions will worsen in Europe.

 

Bearish Reflections (by Springheel Jack)

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This first thing to mention today is that despite the title of this post I'm cautiously bullish for today and am still very much expecting the double-bottom target on SPX in the 1425-30 area to be made. That said, I'm seriously considering the possibility that we may see a second high of a double-top made there, or slightly higher close to the 1442 SPX pivot, before starting a decline into the usual summer low. The reason for the title is that I'm going to show some charts today that suggest that there may not be a usual summer low this year. Just a possibility of course, but worth bearing in mind as part of the bigger picture here. 

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