Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

We Get It

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Yesterday, one of the regulars here on Slope expressed puzzlement and my frequent mentions of "the evils" out there, such as Bernanke, Geithner, POMO, and so forth. He politely stated that the focus should be on the charts, and that the reason behind the price movement was really neither here nor there. He quickly got a lot of "Likes" on his comment, and I realized he had struck a chord. There was so much chatter about his comment that he wound up deleting it, but I felt it was something I should address.

I've made a habit of writing whatever is on my mind (within reason; I don't want to alienate everyone by being too candid about my feelings) here on Slope. It bugs me……..a lot……..that my beloved free enterprise system has been corrupted on an unprecedented scale, so I've been quite vocal – perhaps to the point of nettlesome – about these persons and actions.

Let us use the metaphor of an airplane pilot. I have been trained, let us suppose, as a pilot. I've got years of experience, volumes of knowledge, and a specific objective (which is to get the plane safely to my destination). I have been able to do this for years. However, one day, some people begin putting Vaseline on my windshield. This ground crew – – Geithner and Blankfein – – smear their POMO sauce all over my windshield so that things are difficult to see.

What used to work doesn't work anymore. Things don't make sense. I can't ascertain what's coming up next. Other pilots, whose windshields are similarly smeared, tell me to just keep flying, and that everything will be fine. Just fly, and don't worry about it. But I can't; it's uncomfortable, unsettling, and bothersome. So I complain about the Vaseline. And I keep complaining.

So it is with the markets today. The easiest thing to do is fly (buy) and keep flying (keep buying). It's worked out for plenty of folks. But it seems insane to me (as examples like FFIV are beginning to show us). I'm not a momentum trader. I don't play "Greater Fool" markets. That costs me sometimes, since insanity like 1999 (and 2009/2010) happen. But pushing my plane full-throttle forward, Vaseline be damned, just isn't the way I'm put together. Maybe that makes me a fool, but at least I'm a fool with integrity.

But I understand the Sloper's point about my all-too-frequent complaints about Vaseline. I'll lighten up about it, since I've made my point. You guys know how I feel. I'll try to refrain from mentioning the Evils anymore – – or at least do so infrequently – – since I understand repeating what I've said doesn't really add anything to the discussion. And that's all I've got to say about that.

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Screencast: Apple Earnings Preview

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Hello, this is David Kern from AbjectAvarice.com with a guest post regarding Apple stock and Steve Jobs leave of absence.  That would be news enough, but this week should be even more interesting with earnings from AAPL after the bell on Tuesday.

I’ve decided to try something new with a “screencast” instead of the usual blog post.  I’m hopeful this format will help communicate better some of the cross reference sources and web tools I use – and especially my technical analysis observations.  I welcome your feedback!

Rumblings of a Correction (by David Kern)

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I've been quiet on my blog for a good week or so now, just watching the markets. I don't feel the need to post every day if the action doesn't warrant extended commentary. To be quite honest, I've been preparing to write a big "Repent Bulls, for the end is nigh" post… but it's not time for that yet. Not to say that we're not getting closer. There's been a couple fast moving signals that have caught my attention – most notably the McClellan oscillators for a number of the sectors and indexes have shown sell signals. I put a lot of confidence in sector and market breadth indicators, which the McClellan oscillator certainly is. The thing is, Mr. McClellan can say "SELL" when the result is just that the market goes sideways for a while and then explodes up again. I think you have to balance that out against the direction of the overall market's bullish percents – "see the forest for the trees."


Currently, the overall market bullish percents are continuing upward. More and more stocks are being overcome by buying pressure outvoting sellers. That's a situation that can actually last for an extended period of time, and can be a frustrating one to fight. Doubly frustrating if you're trying to call a top. Reference this next chart, showing the relative S&P 500 bullish percentage compared to the underlying index's performance. As you can see, the bullish percent remained "on offense" (that is, above about 30% and increasing – or anything above about 70%) for about a year with only one defensive period at the beginning of 2010. That whole time, the S&P 500 moved up strongly.

Don't you think you would have liked to stay invested the whole time that bullish percent was "on offense"? Me too.

So, for the time being I remain fully invested. I'm watching closely to see whether more breadth indicators will tumble, and especially how the bullish percents will fare.

My investment portfolio has rotated a bit, so if you haven't checked on my pick's performance lately give it a look.

David Kern (@AbjectAvarice on Twitter)

Following Performers on Slope

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Hopefully most of you know the Performance link in the upper right corner brings up a screen showing all kinds of interesting information about the Trading Ideas posted by Slopers. If you scroll down a bit on the window that appears, you'll see the Top Performing Slopers (in which I'm clinging to 10th place) and those who have posted the Most Ideas

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What's cool about this is that you can follow those folks that seem to be making good picks. By clicking on their profile name, you can either click the Highlight button (which will make their postings show up in boldface on the blog) or, more intrusively, the Follow button (which will cause an email to be sent to you any time the poor soul makes a remark or trading idea on the blog).

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Fun stuff, yes? Anyway, just thought I would point out this feature.