Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Happy Birthday, Slope!

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It seems incredible, but Slope of Hope sprang to life six years ago today. I first started this blog during a profoundly happy time in my life – – I had just sold Prophet two months before, and I was enjoying a vacation in Cancun with my family. At my wife's urging, I started a personal trading diary as a blog. My last sentence on that first post was "The real question is going to be if I'm going to find enough time to do regular posts!". I guess I found the time!

I've learned a few things about blogging in the six years that have passed since that first post. A few tidbits of wisdom are:

+ You can't please everyone – I confess that I'm a person who likes being liked, but when you get a self-selecting group of traders who are going to have all kinds of personalities and quirks, there's going to be conflict. I have tried to run as decent an establishment as possible, but over the years, there have been plenty of folks who have moved on for various reasons. My heart's in the right place, and I try to make Slope welcoming for all, but I've learned that finding a good middleground is a big challenge.

+ Culture Counts – Part of the reason for Slope's popularity and longevity, I think, is because it's a relatively peaceful oasis in the wild, wild west of trading blogs. Some of our brethren trading sites are a cross between Lord of the Flies and Animal House, and my desire is for Slope to be a place where traders can share ideas, stories, anecdotes, travails, and ideas. I want Slope to be a place where I feel comfortable and where I can safely assume most others are comfortable as well, and I think we've achieved that.

+ The blog will ebb and flow with the market – I know this is perceived as a bearish blog, and the traffic shows that. During the (all-too-brief) Japanese-led dip in the market earlier this month, traffic on the blog nearly doubled. Now that things are moving higher in the market again, traffic has softened. I've learned not to take it personally. There are a lot of fair weather friends on Slope.

I am deeply grateful for three groups of people. First, to those of you who have stuck with me through thick and thin and are still here, you have my deepest gratitude and respect. Second, to that "vast silent majority" that comes here every day to anonymously enjoy the blog, I offer my thanks, but I still encourage you to get active in our wonderful, friendly comment section! Third, to those of you who recognize that the only compensation I get from this blog is from clicking of ads which interest you (whether I mention it or not) – thank you for your clicking finger's hard work!

This blog has changed my life, mostly for the better, and as we enter our seventh year – – surely a profoundly rare feat in the world of trading blogs – – may the trading gods smile upon us Slopers and grant us an abundant harvest. Thank you for being here for me, and for each other.

0329-six

SPY Guesstimate Contest Reminder (by Market Sniper)

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For those who may have missed it, the deadline approaches to get your SPY guesstimates in. Friday, March 4, 2011 at 4 pm (EST) is THE deadline! Here are the rules and prizes.

I know some are sandbagging waiting for just before the close to get your entries in. Just do not forget to do it! Should you win first or second prize, Morgan Silver Dollars maybe worth a bazillion dollars by May 6, 2011!

This is open to ALL including lurkers and visitors to The Slope Of Hope. Cost of entry=just one email! Send your guesstimate in to [email protected]; IF you have a Slope handle, please include that as well!

Hope to met a lot of you at the Slopefest III festivities in Las Vegas as well and best of luck!

Slopefest III Update AND SPY Guessing Contest! (Market Sniper)

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Quick update on SlopeFest III. The official dates are Saturday and Sunday, May 14 and 15, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

I was unable to get any deal from Bally's. Seems that unless there is a 30 room guarantee, no dice. So you are on your own with room accommodations. Tim and I will be staying at Bally's. Suggestions for meeting(s) are open. Think maybe dinner on Saturday night. Will give updates on that as we get closer to the event.

SPY Guessing Contest

In a tradition established last year with Slopefest I, there will be a contest open to ALL Slopers. Active participants as well as "lurkers." Some rules a bit different this time. It will be based on the S and P 500 ETF, the SPY, this year. Since Tim is now going long as well as short, it will be closest to the closing number regardless if under OR over.

1. Your guesstimate will be for the CASH close (4 pm EST) of the SPY on Friday, May 6, 2011.

2. All entries must be sent PRIOR to 4 pm (EST) on Friday March 4, 2011. No entries will be accepted after that date or time.

3. In the event of a tie, the winners will be based on time and date the guesstimate was received so get your entry in early!

Prizes:

1. First place: two circulated US Morgan Silver Dollars (common date).

2. Second place: one circulated US Morgan silver Dollar (common date).

3. Third Place: a nice selection of crisp, uncirculated German Not Geld. For those unfamiliar, here is a site to get acquainted. http://www.notgeld.com/

There will be a special prize awarded to the Sloper with the closest guesstimate in physical attendance at Slopefest. Think gold!

I will not, of course, participate in the contest. I will email all entries to Tim also for verification.

Email all entries to me at [email protected]

Best of luck to all and I look forward to meeting a LOT of you in Vegas for Slopefest III. Going to be a blast! Be there or be square!-Market Sniper

PS..please include your Slope handle, should you have one, in your email.

Emotion and Devotion

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Lately, the emotional atmosphere on the blog has been running a little on the hot side, and I wanted to address this. I've received a few emails complaining about "childish" behavior from some participants, and I've noticed a higher-than-average level of needling and snark.

I know as well as anyone that this blog has a lot of bear blood running through it, even though some superbly skilled bulls frequent it as well. And, as a "bearish blog" in an environment where the market is relentlessly moving higher, it's natural that there's a lot of disappointment and frustration going around.

I would hope that bears would not take this frustration and disappointment out on others, although in a couple of cases I've seen that, and for bulls, I would hpoe that gloating would be kept to a minimum (which,again, only has a couple of problematic cases).

Preserving a culture of inane chatter and puerile rantings is a cinch; browse the Yahoo message boards for evidence of that. Promoting and protecting a culture of respect, shared knowledge, and comraderie is hard. Slopers are able to do this most of the time because of who they are (well, 99% of them, anyway) and thanks to the commitment of folks like Iggy and Market Sniper. It's also due to the contribution of writers besides myself, such as Springheel Jack, Runedge, Leaf West, and many others.

I want people to feel good when they are on the blog, no matter what kind of day they are having. I don't like seeing fighting; I don't like seeing nastiness; I don't like seeing name-calling; and I don't like seeing ugly wishes laid bare. I'm all too human, and I've definitely had my "moments", but I think that, over the years, I've become about as good a citizen on the blog as I would hope others would be.

The vast majority of Slopers are fine, and this message isn't intended as a blog-wide scolding. It is simply meant as an expression of values and an affirmation that keeping this place welcoming and positive for all manner of traders is something that matters to me.

Thank you, and good luck to you all on Wednesday.

Lost Opportunity Cost (by David Kern)

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I received an interesting piece of mail this week.  If you invest/trade the markets long enough, you’ll get these sort of mailings fairly regularly.

It was an invitation to participate in a class action lawsuit over something Apple did between 2001 and 2005.  I don’t really know or care what they were sued over, but Apple settled – and the cash is now available to be claimed.  Essentially, if you bought shares of Apple during that time you might be entitled to some portion of a settlement.  I did a search of my trading records, and sure enough – there it was.  I’d bought AAPL on 11 Oct 2005 and sold on 18 Oct 2005: a quick 4% gain.  However, as I reviewed more of the legal mumbo-jumbo, it became clear that my take on the lawsuit settlement would amount to $0.07 (estimated) per share.  Bottom line – not worth my time to even fill out the class action paperwork.  The 4% I made on the trade four years ago far exceeded any reimbursement that I would receive from this settlement.

The interesting thing was realizing that the price I paid for AAPL at that time was $50.59 per share.  Wow, wouldn’t it be nice to have kept those shares?  My unrealized gain today would be 646%!  That’s not really” go-crazy-retire-to-Fiji money”, but it’s well over 100% gain annualized…  Why did I sell at that time?  Probably a stop, could have been an itchy trigger finger with a desire to book gains – really I don’t remember.  When I look at the chart from 2005, it’s really a facepalm moment.

This has been an introspective moment over the weekend, as it’s caused me to question some of my approach to trading the markets.  I assess that I do above average at picking what to buy, and I’m usually pretty good on when to buy also – but my timing on when to sell has had some sucktastic moments.  I’ve experimented with putting trailing stops on everything – only to be whipsawed out of stocks that continued up-up-and-away.  I’ve bought uptrending stocks that then paused and/or retraced just after I buy  – so I sold (locking in a loss) only to find them explode upward the next week.  I’m starting to think that I need to slow down my timeline a little; step back from every wiggle of the chart and let my trading positions work for me.

I’ve believed for a long time that “buy and hold” is a steaming load of crap.  There are a plethora of market indicators that clearly show market trend, and it’s foolish to go long in a bear market or short in a bull market.  My favorite indicators for trend are the market breadth and bullish percents (which as of this writing still show a bull market).  These work well and consistently.  My issue seems to be finding my rhythm for when to take profits or cut losses, and I’m open to ideas on how to improve my game.  I don’t care to hear the Warren Buffet answer (who has said his time horizon is to never sell), but I feel there’s gotta be a better system for when to sell.

By the way – going back to the question of buy and hold AAPL from Oct 2005 – I don’t think that would have been a good idea at all.  There were a couple of clearly defined downtrends the first half of 2006 and most of 2008.  I think any reasonable trader wouldn’t sit on his hands through that bleeding.  Certainly I couldn’t have, considering the market breadth and bullish percents clearly showed defensive situations during that timeframe.  What do you think?