Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Our Hero Oil Again

By -

Well, the big week is here at last, and preparations are well underway. The podium at the Eccles building is being prepared. The microphones are being double-checked. And the poor chap who has to shave Janet’s back before each press conference is subjecting his best blade to a strop to ensure an excellent job. We’re all in this together.

When I curled up in bed Sunday night for my brief hibernation, the ES was up double digits, clearly getting a bounce from its deliciously battered state on Friday evening. “Moments ago” (as our friends ZH like to measure time) when I woke up, I was slightly bracing myself for high how the ES might have fought its way back. I say “slightly” because, as I’ve said many times recently, I intend to lighten up quite a bit before The Evil One speaks on Wednesday, and I’m already down to only 60 short positions.

(more…)

Is Oil Set to Bounce?

By -

The following 5-Year Daily chart depicts Light Crude Oil (as the primary instrument in candle format) and the S&P 500 Index (as the secondary instrument shown as a black line). There was a drastic shift in sentiment between these two markets when they began to diverge in mid-October, 2014.

While the price of Oil is making lower swing lows in its depressed downtrend — and, in fact, made a new 5-year low today (December 7th) — the RSI and PMO indicators have been making higher swing lows but have yet to make higher swing highs. So, while we’re seeing possible hints of higher prices to come at some point in the future, it may be awhile yet before prices begin to stabilize, first. High-than-normal volumes this year haven’t yet produced stable prices and may have contributed to the large swings in between 37.50 and 62.50 that we’ve been seeing. Until we see a sustained drop in volumes, we will likely see Oil continue to plunge to further new lows and/or persist in its wild daily erratic bearish and bullish spikes.

The Roaring Thirties

By -

Well, I’m just back from the annual cookie party a good friend of mine throws each holiday season (which sort of doubles as a bacchanalia). I sneaked a peek at quotes from time to time, and the thing that pleased me most is that my dearest friend of all of 2015, crude oil, kept slip-sliding away. The 30s are finally here, and I think the price destruction of commodities is going to continue to be the Big Story (that not enough people are heeding) as we head into the new year.

1206-cl

UPDATE as of Monday morning: it’s just getting better. (more…)

What’s OPEC To Do?

By -

Contributed by Sloper Stephen Davied:

It seems every news agency is spitting out stories about the upcoming OPEC meeting on Dec 4, 2015. Based on what I have read consensus is OPEC will do nothing at the next meeting and the reason they will do nothing is loosely based on losing respect of others in the market. OPEC made the decision previously not to cut output in order to drive down prices and push out the inefficient producers. Consensus is that work may not be done yet. So it seems the expectation is for no quota change causing further price decline.

(more…)