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That was a decent move down yesterday, but it wasn't that encouraging for more downside. Marginal new lows on strong positive RSI divergence are generally a reversal signal and we're seeing a strong bounce so far overnight. I'm seeing a possible falling wedge on the ES 60min chart and I have declining resistance in the 1243.5 – 44 area. A reversal there would confirm the wedge, which indicates back to the recent ES high:
I have had enough damage done from marrying myself to an analog that I approach them with caution these days. Just like Elliott Waves, analogs represent for me enough disappointment that I view them with suspicion. The difference, though, is that in my opinion Elliott Waves are greatly for explaining what happened (after the fact), whereas analogs can actually have some utility for predictive value.
Because I know Tim is a big supporter of EWT, I thought I would put up a post on GS …
I'm long GS and I am watching here as the stock looks like it has completed a Wave 2 retracement, and is about to start a 3rd wave push higher …
Wave 2 pull-backs are very emotional as buyers and sellers battle it out … they typically end at the 78.6% Fib level as GS just did .
The 2nd wave ended right in the projected target zone and is now on the cusp of breaking a down trend line.
It has to be determined whether or not the 3rd wave is just that … a 3rd wave in a corrective bounce, or whether it leads to a 5th wave push higher. We can figure that out when the 3rd wave is over and the pull-back begins.
Here is the Contraction Pattern I am hawking right now … it looks like it is going to pull-back before breaking the move higher.
GS 3-Minute Chart
Cheers … Leaf_West (please visit me at my blog (http://blog.tradingwithleafwest.com/)
Over the last few months we have been talking about the .35% symmetry support. As the market was falling in August it seemed impossible for the support to hold but it did and from the support we have rallied 1500 DOW points.
It seems like we would have to pullback from where we are now but if we look at the 30 Minute chart you can see the .35% has held again at the 11,600 level. As long as we stay above the 11,600 this market does have a shot at making a new high above the 12,900 high. As of right now the bigger trend and 30 minute trend is stll up.
It seems like we should pullback but if we can follow through today to the upside we could get a short squeeze from the overbought daily levels as the weekly and monthly chart kicks in. The next two days are going to be very important. Right now the daily NQ candle looks like a DOJI but we still have a few more hours left in todays session.
This is our last bigger picture update from yesterday http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/what-if/
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