Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Ides of March (by Springheel Jack)

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I posted a chart last night on twitter that I'll start with today. It's a look at the very rare candlestick setup we've seen on SPX in the last two days, with the strong punch through the upper bollinger band on Tuesday, and then SPX opening and closing above the upper bollinger band yesterday. I have four instances of this happening since the 2009 low. Two marked a short term high and two were just a short way below. This is a respectably bearish setup and I've put the stats for what happened afterwards on the chart:


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Monday Thoughts (by Springheel Jack)

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My post will be a bit different today. As I have mentioned frequently, the current move up from the December low on SPX hasn't delivered much in the way of decent overall trendlines, so I'm going to present the consensus view from the EWers, who have had an impressively good handle on the current move up. You'll have to excuse my amateurish EW labelling and chart, but while I always keep an eye on the EW view, it isn't my thing really, and I rarely mark up an EW count on a chart.

I know that elliot wave counts are anathema to a lot of my readers, but like any form of analysis you get the best results from the best practitioners and I have a lot of confidence is the ones I follow. The shallow retracements on trendline breaks that we have seen on the current move up from the mid December low are also strongly characteristic of wave 3 moves I've seen in the past, so the overall thesis is reasonable, though I don't much care for the idea that SPX is going to rise much higher, as that seriously weakens the case that we are still in a bear market:

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Treacherous Tuesday (by BBFinance)

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As I mentioned in the morning, it was the third push up from the triangle and the pushes are now complete. Before today, the last seven trading days was a churn. The market was going round in circle and was making it difficult to find any direction. With today’s price action the direction of the market is becoming much clear. I will have to wait for tomorrow to decide whether I will close my short position on January 12 or 20. But either way I expect the market to go down from here. But may be one last attempt to retest today’s high will be made tomorrow.

It was just 11 point gain in SPX for the day. And I think the market will soon give back those 11 points and some more. The interesting thing to notice is how the sentiment changes. Before the year end, when I was talking about Santa Rally, there was general skepticism around. Not many believe that SPX will come close to 1300. And yet today, there is talk of SPX crossing 1400!

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