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$USDJPY hit upper level of resistance on this pair for the potential top of wave ((ii)) at the 119.96 level. Ideally this level should hold if we are going to see an immediate drop for wave ((iii)) of C of (B) down. Initial targets for wave ((iii)) come in in the 115.97 – 114.94 level with ultimate targets for wave ((v)) of C much lower. Again invalidation of this setup occurs with a break over the 120.57 level.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Mike Golembesky.
USD/JPY – This count is still extremely messy due to the flat correction that we have seen since the 8/24 low. When we have a count that unclear the best approach is to zoom out to view the bigger picture to help find some clarity.
When we zoom out on USD/JPY what we find is a clearly corrective move off of the June high that was followed by another clearly corrective move off of the August 24th low. This tells us that from the bigger picture perspective we are most likely in a large B wave. A large B wave also makes a lot of sense as B waves are often very messy and many times the most confusing of all of the waves in Elliott Wave Theory. So given that our view that we are in a large B wave off of the August 24th low the question is where within this B wave are we. Well the action since the August 24th low, and especially since the 9/4 low, is making this extremely difficult to determine however this does not mean that we cannot find a setup in which to trade.
So far, GBP/USD has rallied into the 61.8 extension off of our potential wave (i) up for a possible (i)-(ii) i. We are now looking for a wave ii retrace into the 1.5451 – 1.5405 level for a potential entry of a short term long position for wave iii of (iii) up. Initial targets for wave iii com in around the 1.5706 – 1.5751 with targets of wave (iii) at the 1.5823 – 1.5939 zone. Invalidation of this setup comes in with a break under the 1.5294 level.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Mike Golembesky.
I recently did a post about my odd relationship with Elliott Wave. A Sloper sent a very thoughtful email which I thought you’d find of interest. He has given me permission to publish it:
I’m a long time Slope reader, but rarely read comments and have never contributed (I just don’t have the time). Your recent post, My Odd Relationship with EW, really struck a cord so I thought you might find my experience somewhat interesting.
I was an Elliott Wave Theorist subscriber for years, roughly 1983-1990. While I was too late for the 1982 market blast off, subsequently read back issues verified that the EWT had nailed it. My live time experience for the first 4 years was exceptional. As you said in your post I was “stunned at its prescience”. The EWT called the temporary top in late 83 (best recollection on dates) and then the bottom in 84. And was preaching coming explosion higher.
I have, over the nearly eleven years (!) this blog has been around, largely avoided the topic of Elliott Waves. There is no shortage of posts here on Slope, largely by others, about the Elliott Wave theory (click here to see the list of them) but for myself, I hardly ever mention it.
One thing to understand how I analyze the markets is that I’m pretty damned lazy about using 
methods that don’t “sing” to me. That sounds like an odd verb to use, but it’s the one that’s always made the most sense. The things that sing to me – – those which resonate and make sense to me – – tend to be simple tools like horizontal support & resistance levels, trendlines, and, to a lesser degree, Fibonacci retracements.
I don’t go in for stochastics, Bollinger bands, relative strength indicators, moving averages, MACD, or any of that other stuff. I am awfully fond of analogs, as some of you know, but while some border on the magical (like the one I offered on Alcoa this year) others lead to completely erroneous predictions.
