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The ideal scenario takes us into the 1.3215 – 1.3143 level as a retrace for wave ii of (iii), which we would then expect to be followed by a very strong move higher for wave iii of (iii). Click on either image for a much larger version.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net by Mike Golembesky.
$USDOLLAR From an Elliott Wave perspective the consolidation pattern in the FXCM US Dollar Index that we have seen since the May 13th low could be viewed in one of two ways. The first of which is that the May 13th low was the wave a of (iv) and this consolidation pattern was a b wave triangle after which we expect a c wave down to complete wave (iv) into the 11,600 area before continuing back higher in our larger degree bullish pattern. This is my preferred count at this time and is shown in white on the charts:
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Mike Golembesky.
EURUSD: 1.09678 — ideal Fib support and possible target for the wave (i) down — was not hit yet. But relatively small bounce provided us with moderate overbought indication — and I still can expect at least 1.09678 target to be reached before the larger corrective bounce will occur.
We are still hearing an abundance of calls for the death to the US Dollar, which have amazingly continued during this entire rally from 2011 – which we called for back then. But, the dollar has given no indications that it has even been afflicted with an ailment, so the dire prognosis is quite surprising to me.
Rather, we have been in a long 4th wave consolidation, and set up to head higher quite imminently, as we have been suggesting for the last few weeks. Anyone following fundamentals or who has bought into the perceived power of the Fed over the dollar has completely missed this rally since 2011, but Elliott Wave analysis has provided the true clues to this market.
