Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Age-Old Question; Inflation or Deflation?

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I try to have a lot of different ways of looking at the macro backdrop because if enough of them imply the same thing then a strong probabilities-based thesis can be made.

For instance, currently we are looking at long-term Treasury yields hit (10yr) or get very close to (30yr) upside targets. You know my stance there; I think risk is pretty high for a downward reaction in yields before too long. I’ve backed that view with portfolio balancing positions in 3-7yr and 7-10yr bonds. But even if a reaction comes about (and especially if it doesn’t), the big question is whether or not we are going into territory that has been uncharted for decades.

So are we going to eventually break the Continuum’s limiter? Here is the 30yr yield, almost to a target that few saw coming several months ago, outside of this website when we ID’d the downward consolidation as a bullish flag and used daily charts to gauge bullish patterns in the 10yr & 30yr. (more…)

Gold Ratios; Beware the Inflationists

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Too many gold bugs are either still pimping the ‘inflation trade’ or digitally pleasuring other gold bugs with predictions based on inflation. From my favorite example of this behavior just yesterday (he of the “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge” for GDX that failed into a miserable bear market extension a few years ago). Just yesterday…

“I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation numbers that I am projecting for America in the years ahead.”

I don’t use the guy’s name because he is not a big public figure like Dennis Gartman or Doug Casey. But he is highly visible within the gold cult err, “community” and he uses a lot of !!!!! when trying to hammer his points home to greedy gold bugs (the only kind, I assume, who take him seriously). Exclamation points are a sign of someone who really… really, I mean REALLY wants you to get their point!! (ha ha ha). (more…)

Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing

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Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings numbers on the head in this post from yesterday. We all get lucky here in the casino. Here is the post that the estimates came from the day before the Payrolls release. (more…)

Macro Plan Still on Track for Stocks, Commodities & Gold

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As I’ve been noting again, again, again, again, and again the macro backdrop is marching toward changes. I’d originally thought those changes would come about within the Q4 window and while that may still be the case, it can easily extend into the first half of 2018 based on new information and data points that have come in.

One thing that has not changed is that stock sectors, commodities and the inflation-dependent risk ‘on’ trades and the gold sector, Treasury bonds and the risk ‘off’ trades are all keyed on the interest rate backdrop; and I am not talking about the Fed, with its measured Fed Funds increases. I am talking about long-term Treasury bond yields and yield relationships (i.e. the yield curve). (more…)