Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Impressions from TBTF

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I finally finished reading Too Big To Fail, and I'd probably give it an 8 on a scale of 1 to 10 (it doesn't come close to James Stewart's Den of Thieves, about the Boesky-Millken scandal). Sorkin's challenge in writing TBTF, I think, was that there was a cast of about 100 different characters, whereas Den of Thieves really just focused on a few.

From some of the really big characters in the book, I got the following impressions:

  • Henry Paulson – I came away thinking his motives were actually pretty much in the right place. He had already made a gigantic fortune, and he was really trying to save a system he thought had core value. Also – – he throws up a lot (the stress really got to him).
  • Tim Geithner – Seems to be all business. I'm not sure if this guy has ever cracked a smile in his life. A firm negotiator throughout.
  • Ben Bernanke – It's surprising what a minor role Ben has in this book; by and large, he is seem as far more academic (yet still very respected) than the others, but Paulson uses him, some degree, as a shill.
  • Llloyd Blankfein – Not surprisingly – Lloyd lloves lloot. That's all that need be said.
  • Jamie Dimon – Hard-ass businessman and shrewd negotiator.
  • Sheila Bair - The book tends to view her through the Paulson/Geithner lens, which characterizes her as more of a bureaucrat/poser than the other parties in the book. She's also pretty much the only woman prominently featured, with the exception of Erin Callan, the Lehman CFO, who is portrayed as kind of a MILF-y incompetent).
  • Christopher "I have no lower teeth" Cox – Every bit as feeble and ineffectual as you would guess.
  • Dick Fuld – Actually pretty sad. He comes off as more of a victim than a villain, and he tried desperately to save his firm. This guy is no saint, but he definitely got the very short end of the stick in September 2008. I wouldn't blame the guy for being bitter for the rest of his life.

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Book Review: An Empire of Wealth (by bilabng888)

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Published in 2004, An Empire of Wealth by John Steele Gordon explores the economic history of the United States from Henry Hudson sailing the Half Moon up the Hudson
River
in 1609 to the terrorist attacks of September 11th,
2001.  Mr. Gordon’s premise is to show
that America
was formed primarily out of a profit-seeking motive and became the first nation
to achieve superpower status via economic pathways as opposed to military aggression.

An Empire of Wealth

An Empire of Wealth
provides a fascinating record of our nation’s multitudinous speculative booms
and busts, technological revolutions, Wall Street shenanigans, corporate
espionage, persistent legislative ineptitude, experiments with having and not
having a central bank, our rocky history with the gold standard, Yankee
Ingenuity, fluctuations between massive budget surpluses to deficits, and
countless other stories of industrial heroism and nefarious greed.  Empire does an excellent job of
covering America’s
epic development as an economic superpower.

While Empire is not a “how
to” book for a trader, it provides incredible insight into the history and
character of the American economy; the playing field on which we all competing.  More importantly, Empire thoroughly explores
the development of the great entity of Wall Street.  To know one’s history is to better understand
one’s future.

For example, Empire shows
that in the 1640’s, during the formative years of Nieuw Amsterdam (now Manhattan), over 18 languages
were spoken, the seal consisted a beaver (the main commodity being traded)
surrounded by wampum (Indian currency), and it took the settlers 17 years to
erect the first church.  An international
collection of people focused first on trade and second on all other
pursuits.  It appears not much has
changed in Manhattan
since its original founding.

Mr. Gordon walks the reader
through countless booms and busts, and in by doing so, he shows us how
repetitive the American economic cycle is. 
We currently are all trying to trade through “unprecedented times,” but
after reading Empire, one realizes our current environment is nothing
new.  With this understanding of history,
a trader can achieve some level of serenity and be able to better predict where
we are going.

Empire provides a solid
compilation of the causes and effects of the Great Depression.  To drive home the point that “everything old
is new again,” let two lesser known facts from the 1930’s be brought to
light.  First, in the fall of 1932 the
yield on Treasury Bills went negative. 
Secondly, in 1938, Richard Whitney and Company, led by the former
President of the New York Stock Exchange, was discovered to be engaging in a
massive embezzlement scheme to defraud all of its investors.  6,000 people gathered to watch Mr. Madoff
Whitney be led away in handcuffs and sent to Sing Sing.  Sound familiar?

Read An Empire of Wealth.  It humbles the reader by showing that we are
all just one of the hundreds of millions of people who have participated in the
American economy while instilling a terrific sense of pride that we have the
opportunity to compete in the most dynamic and colorful economic story the
world has ever seen.

Book Review: Reminiscences (by bilabng888)

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I will be posting a new book
review each week to Slope of Hope.  One
of the primary questions I receive as a trader is, “what should I read to learn
more about trading?”  My goal is to
introduce many of the books I have found helpful and provide a brief summary of
the tome.  Not all books about the
markets are relevant to everyone so hopefully this weekly posting will help you
decide if the selected books are for you.

Stockoperator

Let me begin with, what I believe
is, one of the most timeless books ever written about trading:  Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.  Yes, it is cliché to start with
Reminiscences.  However, considering
oneself a professional trader and not reading this book is akin to going to
church and stating that one has never opened the Bible.  Skim the pages of Market Wizards and behold
the sheer volume of great traders and hedge funders who specifically point to it.

Originally published in 1923,
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictional account of Jesse Livermore;
arguably one of the greatest traders to ever operate on Wall Street.  The lessons and scenarios presented
throughout the book are timeless as the problems Mr. Livermore faces and the
strategies he employs are virtually unchanged in current times.

Why You Should Read Reminiscences

The sheer knowledge and anecdotal
advice sprinkled through the book is spectacular.  Let me present in bullet form quotes from the
book:

  • “I didn’t ask the tape why (it moves) when I was
    fourteen, and I don’t ask it today when I am forty…What the dickens does
    that matter.”
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of
    underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street.”
  • “It never was my thinking that made the big money for
    me.  It was always my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!”
  • “Your best and only friend is a prevailing trend.”
  • “Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what
    shows you a profit.”
  • “I’ve got friends, of course, but my business has
    always been the same; a one man affair. 
    That is why I have always played a lone hand.”
  • “Remember that stocks are never too high for you to
    begin buying or too low to begin selling.”

I could continue for hours
regurgitating the priceless pieces of advice throughout the book but that would
defeat the point.

If the prior quotes weren’t
enough to show the advice in Reminiscence is timeless, let me present to
everyone a situation Mr. Livermore faced in respect to a large coffee trade he
put on in 1917 (change the date to 2008/2009 and does the following sound
eerily familiar?):

“Coming sure and fast, that
profit of millions!  But it never reached
me.  No: it wasn’t side-tracked by a
sudden change in conditions….What happened?….It was simply that the fellows
who had sold me the coffee knew what was in store for them, and in their
efforts to squirm out of the positions, devised a new way of welshing.  They
rushed to Washington
for help, and got it
(emphasis added).”

Sound familiar?  Not much has changed in Wall Street.  Read Reminiscences and much of the shenanigans
in the current market will no longer shock you. 
Trade the tape you have and listen to the sage advice of the original
Wizard of Wall Street.

Trading Verdict:  BUY

Applicable to:  EVERYONE

Never Stop Learning

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A few days ago, my little girl had the following conversation with me:

Daughter: I can always tell which Dad is mine.

Me: How's that?

Daughter: You're the one who's always reading.

It's true. I read all the time. And last night, I scanned my shelves of trading and technical analysis books and picked up Trading In the Zone, which I've read many times before. (It's in my list of recommended reading.)

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Most books about trading are totally useless, but there are a few gems. And those you find are gems, I suggest you read over and over and over again. Highlight them; think about them; absorb them. Because as I grow – and you do as well – as a trader, the book's message will be richer and more meaningful.