OK, blogger's guilt strikes again. I want to get this off my plate.

I've re-examined all my Big Picture posts, and I actually haven't changed my mind one bit – – for months I've had an eye toward 925, and 925 is still where my target is at. I had drifted into "875" for some reason, but that's too low.

The 1937-1942 analog calls for a drop within the next couple of months somewhere between the two highlighted cyan areas (ranging from about 875 to 1010). Based on a number of measurements I've done, around 925 to 930 makes the most sense. I've tinted the general target zone.

As proof this is not just Wishful Bearish Thinking, my view is that this will be pretty much all the fun the bears can count on for many months to come. Indeed, if we were to enjoy such a drop, I'd pretty much go to almost-all-longs mode for a while (wouldn't that be something?)

Anyway, Friday should be interesting. Last Friday certainly was. Good luck to us all.

I revisited my 1937-1942 analog this afternoon. I've hand-marked up the charts, but I didn't feel like scanning them in, because the last 30 minutes of the day's trading left me ticked-off and, thanks to our dear friends as GS, disillusioned just like I was prior to mid-April.

So instead of sharing every little wiggle with you, I'll simply point out approximately where we are in the analog; here is the 1937-1939 chunk, with our "target" circled:

We could still climb higher from here; anywhere in that cyan-tinted area would be acceptable. If and when we do flip down, assuming the analog holds (as it has for nearly two years now), we'll fall to somewhere in that magenta range. The range is huge, I realize, but my guess is 9000 on the Dow, plus or minus a hundred points or so.

I'm really bummed that a 20-point slaughter of GOOG isn't doing a thing for the equity bear after hours. It'll be good to get yet another OPEX out of the way. Good night.

At the risk of making a total ass of myself – – – which is endemic to doing this blog, I suppose – – I offer the following update to my world-famous WAG, originally posted on April 25th:

Whenever we see any weakness in the market, some Slopers have declared my WAG dead. Pish-posh! The WAG is alive and well.

What got me thinking about this was this post from my good friend Serge, the mercenary dictator of ETF Corner. He emailed me this particular image from the post which, on its surface, projects that the /ES will get back to about 1170 before turning down again. He has confirmed privately with me that we are right about at that dotted line now.

With the utmost respect to my Parisian friend, instead of being between "7" and "8", I think we're between "9" and "10". Observe my own labeling, lovingly crafted in the fine calligraphy you've all grown to respect and adore (as always, click on it to see a bigger version):

I've done two big things different than Serge. ONE, I've put in my own labeling, and TWO – – importantly – – I've taken into account the "X" factor. To explain:

"8" should have been a rocket launch to 1131, and "9" should have been an ease back to the neckline. Instead, "8" was completely limp-wristed, and "9" fell 21.25 points farther than it should have.

When I initially did this drawing, I used this absolute delta to project a target for "10" at 1150, but subsequent to this drawing, I used a percentage instead, and I came up with a target of 1143 instead. This just happens to correspond beautifully with the January high.

It also conforms with the entire WAG scenario beautifully, in addition to the Light That Guides Us All, which is my 1937-1942 analog.

The ideal scenario would be for us to shoot to 1143 (plus or minus a few points), stall, and then start falling. I think Serge's analog with China is brilliant, but with these two important modifications, I think the top before 2010's big plunge is much closer than he postulated.