Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Backtesting Broken Resistance

By -

I mistakenly said last week that our monthly free public Chart Chat was last Sunday. It is actually next Sunday, so if you’d like to register for that, you can do that on our May Free Webinars page.

The NQ triangle broke up last week and ES broke up from declining resistance and back over the daily middle band. The short term low is likely made and ES/SPX has been backtesting broken resistance.

There is some scope to go lower, with the obvious support levels on ES at the weekly and monthly pivots, at 2645.5 and 2639 respectively, but these look like bull flags forming so far, and SPX has come close to a test of short term support at the 50 hour MA at 2653. That may be close enough. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:

(more…)

Waiting For The NQ Triangle Thrust

By -

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday looking at the usual wide range of tickers over world equity, bond, commodity and forex markets. If you’d like to attend you can register for that on our May Free Webinars page.

I was talking on yesterday morning’s video about the triangle breaking down on NQ, saying that the classic triangle sequence would be for the initial break to find a low, then reverse back up into the NQ triangle, and then do the main triangle thrust down. So far NQ is following that sequence and should now be topping out on the backtest into the triangle to start the main triangle thrust down. (more…)

Triangles Within Triangles

By -

Apologies for the slow rate of updates this week. Stan and I are distracted while running our first Trader’s Boot Camp, lasting about four weeks and lasting until the end of next week. We are teaching basic TA and trading methods for both swing and day trades. This is mainly aimed at existing subscribers, on the basis that a profitable subscriber is a happy subscriber, but we are starting to promote this to non-subscribers for the next one starting on 22nd May, so if you might be interested, have a look here. We are charging $499 per seat for non-subscribers, which seemed a fair price to us, but for some reason is by far the cheapest we have seen anywhere on the web.

I should also mention that our monthly free public Chart Chat is on Sunday and you can sign up for that on our May Free Webinars page. We’ll be covering the usual range of thirty to forty instruments across equity, bond, currency, precious metal and commodity markets. (more…)

A Pivotal Moment

By -

It is the first day of May today and ES, NQ & TF all started the day testing their new monthly pivots at 2639, 6596 and 1540 respectively. This is an important inflection point, and the historical stats for the first day of May lean bullish.

On a conviction break of these monthly pivots the next obvious target on SPX is triangle support in the 2570 area, with a possible shot at the open Three Day Rule target at the retest of the April low at 2553.

On a failure to break down with conviction through the new monthly pivots the triangle forming since the start of February may be complete. The obvious next moves would be a thrust up through triangle resistance, currently in the 2725 area, then a backtest from that high back into the triangle, and then a thrust up that at minimum retests the all time high. (more…)

TGIF

By -

I’m doing a morning post today as I’m hoping to take most of the afternoon off after a big webinar at lunchtime. Starting the weekend early. 🙂

ES/SPX broke back over the daily middle band yesterday and needs to confirm the break above with another close above today. That’s is currently in the 2655 area on both ES and SPX and is clear support. If we were to see a rejection back under there today then we might well see most or all of yesterday’s daily candle retraced, as that is seen very frequently on a middle band break and non-confirmation.

So the daily middle band is clear support today. Clear resistance is at the ES monthly and weekly pivots at 2678.75 and 2683.25. The high on ES yesterday was .at the monthly pivot test and if ES is going to fail there we would ideally see yesterday’s high tested this morning to establish negative RSI divergence, then a hard fail. (more…)