Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Candidate Retracement Low

By -

In my last post on Tuesday I listed the three obvious targets for the current retracement from the all time high on SPX. The highest was the rising support trendline from the March 2020 low and that target was hit at the low yesterday. So far that has delivered a large rally and may well be the retracement low.

If so, then that confirms a rising wedge from the March 2020 low and delivers a clear target for the move of that low at rising wedge resistance, currently in the 3287 area, but rising of course. Possible resistance at the current all time high, but no particularly obvious reason to think that resistance would be found there.

SPX 60min 16Mo chart:

SPX min
(more…)

Bull Flag And Retest (Reprise)

By -

Since my last post we have seen what may be the full backtest on SPX that I was looking at then, but might only be the first leg of that backtest The backtest did not quite reach the 3950-4025 target zone, and none of the three obvious targets were hit at the weekly middle band, currently in the 3980 area, or either of the rising support trendlines from the March 2020 and October 2020 lows (shown below), and the daily RSI 14 sell signal did not make target so I’m leaning towards another leg down, that could happen after an all time high retest to set up a possible double top.

SPX daily chart:

SPX Daily
(more…)

Backtesting Broken Resistance

By -

On the bigger picture here the overall position on SPX is bullish. There has been a solid break over the big resistance level at 4000, and SPX is currently on both monthly and weekly upper band rides. There is currently no negative divergence on either of the monthly or weekly charts, with the weekly RSI 5 sell signal that had fixed having failed.

SPX monthly chart:

SPX Monthly
(more…)

Bull Flag And Retest

By -

I’m hoping all of you saw the bull flag channel on SPX that I posted on my twitter feed on Wednesday morning. Obviously that has played out and delivered a new high on SPX on Friday. So what now?

Well this is another inflection point of course, I’m expecting a reversal into a larger retracement to start soon but SPX could break up higher directly. The retracement low last week established a very decent looking rising channel from the last significant low at 3855, and there is plenty of room to the upside in that channel.

On the downside a break below that channel support, currently in the 4145 area, would be a good indication that the larger retracement I am thinking is likely here is in progress.

A possible double top formed at the retest of the all time high last week, and on a sustained break below last week’s low at 4118 the double top target would be in the 4043 area.

(more…)