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Friday was very weak, particularly for a big opex Friday, and SPX broke down through the daily middle band, currently 4215 area, the 50dma, currently 4183 area, and on ES even briefly broke down below the monthly pivot. We are seeing a rally this morning and I was giving the ideal rally high area on my premarket video at theartofchart.net in the 4230-5 SPX area. The odds look good for a reversal there into lower lows.
SPX daily chart:
I had a couple of overhead targets that I was looking for this week, and the chances of making the ambitious one on SPX in the 4350 area finally withered and died with the hawkish FOMC comments yesterday.
The more important one was on NDX however, and that has completed as expected this week, with the final part of the topping setup there completed with the new all time high today.
There is now a very attractive nested double top setup there, and a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal is brewing.
NDX daily chart:
(more…)On my last post I was looking at the setup for a backtest of the daily middle band, and SPX delivered that and has then rallied back almost to the all time high retest, which I’m expecting to happen ideally today or tomorrow, as the historical stats for Wednesday and Thursday this week lean significantly bearish.
SPX daily chart:
June is not a bullish month historically on SPX, but it does have some bullish leaning days. Today, the second trading day of the month, is historically the strongest day of the month, with 76.2% green closes on SPX. Yesterday runs equal with Tuesday 15th June for second most bullish day of the month with 66.7% green closes.
Now these don’t always deliver by any means, as if they did the averages would all be 100%, but in a setup where there is obvious unfinished business above at the retest of the all time high on SPX, they generally would, so it is interesting that as the second trading day of June draws towards the close, there is little sign so far of the bulls showing up for work.
Just to review the overall position here. SPX is in a high quality rising wedge from the March 2020 low. Wedge support is currently in the 4110 area and wedge resistance currently in the 4310 area. The next obvious target is a retest of the all time high on SPX, and if SPX continues higher then the next trendline resistance within that rising wedge is that rising wedge resistance, now in the 4310 area, and rising of course.
(more…)In my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net this morning I was looking at the very attractive looking setup on the index futures for a sharp retracement, and since then an H&S has broken down that would look for the 4165 area on ES. That would be a backtest of the daily middle band as support, and as I was explaining looking at the ES chart particularly, this retracement may well go deeper towards the 4100 area.
