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SPX is retracing and is likely to open today below the monthly pivot at 3867 and the weekly pivot at 3853. That opens a possible backtest of the daily middle band, currently in the 3812 area, and a close below and conversion of that to resistance would open a possible 2022 low retest.
Am I expecting to see that directly from here? No, but it is a possibility.
SPX daily BBs chart:
SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.
In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.
(more…)I hope everyone had a great Independence Day weekend. For some obscure historical reason that isn’t a public holiday over here in the UK, but as I work US hours I had a very pleasant long weekend.
I’m going to look at the short and longer term prospects for SPX here, and I’ll start with an important longer term chart, the SPX monthly chart where there has now been a monthly close below the key support & resistance trendline on SPX since the 2009 low.
That opens the possibility for further downside and we may well be seeing that either sooner or later.
(more…)Last week I was talking about a likely modest rally coming, which we have seen, and then a low retest, which we have not yet seen but I’m expecting to see this week.
After that I’m thinking we may well see a much larger rally on SPX, and one thing I was waiting to see before that rally was decent positive divergence on the weekly RSI 5, which we now have.
If we do see that larger rally, then I’d be looking for a test, and perhaps a break, of main downtrend resistance, which is at the weekly middle band, now at 4209.
(more…)I wanted to talk a bit this morning about big highs and lows on SPX. Obviously the economy may well be going into recession, interest rates will likely rise a lot further over coming years, and that has to happen really because examples in history where inflation has been brought under control without interest rates higher than that inflation are rare. The world is also particularly vulnerable to high interest rates because after so many years of very low interest rates, levels of both public and private debt are extremely high, and rising interest rates over time will likely force many people, companies and governments into defaulting on their debt. It is going to be rough.
(more…)
