Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

In The Inflection Point

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In my last post on Tuesday I was talking about ideally seeing a higher high on this rally to set up divergence and we have since seen that on SPX, NDX and IWM. That has set possible daily RSI 5 and hourly RSI 14 sell signals brewing on SPX and brought SPX closer to the ideal IHS area at the June high at 4177.

The distance from the SPX 45dma reached a nosebleed level at 6.19% though that doesn’t mean as much after a strong bear move. Still a very good place to be looking for a retracement though.

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Testing Main Resistance

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When I started to write about the prospects for a decent rally on the 17th and 22nd June I was somewhat apologetic about even suggesting that a rally might be possible, as the background looked so grim and people were so relentlessly bearish. I was looking for strong rallies on the US equity indices and on bonds and we have been seeing both since.

I think both may go a lot further, but SPX is now testing main downtrend resistance at the weekly middle band, with the other US indices close to important established resistance and possible IHS necklines, and there is a good chance that US equity indices may turn back down here either to form right shoulders on a series of large IHS patterns, or possibly to retest the 2022 lows, very possibly on SPX to make the second low of a double top setting up an attempt to retest the all time highs.

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Retesting The Upper Band

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This is likely my only post this week, as I was wiped out by food poisoning on Sunday night, and while I’m feeling much recovered, my total food consumption so far this week is one hard boiled egg, a tortilla wrap, some houmous to go with the wrap and half a cookie, which is slim pickings. I’m cautiously considering possible menu items for today.

On to the markets though, and the H&S setup I was looking at yesterday morning in my premarket video at theartofchart.net I posted on my twitter failed and on the break over the right shoulder retested the rally high as expected (after the fail) and went a bit higher. So where does that leave SPX now?

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Testing 4000

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Last weekend I was looking at the higher probability bear flag formation options on SPX and was looking at the resistance trendline on the chart below as the highest quality bear flag resistance trendline. That’s in the 4050 area now, having eliminating the triangle option in the move up this week, and SPX successfully negotiated the very bearish historical stats yesterday to reach the 4000 area this morning.

SPX 15min chart:

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A Short But Winding Road

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In my last post I was talking about the possibility of a triangle forming on SPX. That triangle arguably then finished wave D at the low that day and then broke down the next. Had that been a bear flag triangle then the target would then have been a retest of the 2022 low, but it seems likely from the action since then that if there is a bear flag forming here short term, which seems likely, then it is still forming.

I’ve drawn in some trendline options on the SPX chart below for a possible larger bear flag triangle or rising megaphone. The megaphone resistance trendline is in the 4025 area is the highest obvious option.

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