Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo).
Well, the curve is flattening.
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.
NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.
I thought it was interesting that today’s COVID mutant news has piggy backed on top of an already concerning situation as noted last weekend. From the November 21 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole…
(more…)Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult might it be to put all of these released animal spirits back in the box? Eh James? Eh Jerome? Does Lael even want them back in a box? How about Janet (not on the FOMC I know, but she’s always there in the side car)?
(more…)As a TA, I respect charts first and foremost. On occasion that respect has burned me as I’ve missed big profit opportunity or not seen a disaster unfolding that the charts missed. But much more often it helps me profit or saves me from disastrous ends. TA is just one tool in the box. An important one, but it should not stand alone. With the gold stocks especially, the correct macro-fundamentals matter.
Lately, with respect to the HUI Gold Bugs index, TA has helped me (and NFTRH subscribers) manage a low born of over-bearish sentiment at a key long-term support area (230 +/-), one of three downside targets we’ve had open since the correction began in summer 2020. For management of the correction and its bounces we’ve used various charts of varying detail and time frames. But last week in NFTRH 680 we simplified to the daily view below. With the rally now in full flight it is time to be paying attention to what may come next.
(more…)While I hold a special place (in my thoughts and in NFTRH) for the gold stock sector due to its counter-cyclical nature, it’s a big market out there and a strategic view of the macro helps with successful positioning. Following is a snapshot of some sectors/markets with general thoughts on each. I will provide one chart or graphic for each but not mark them up or get into too much technical or fundamental detail. There’s a weekend report for all of that stuff. For now, a brief review.
Gold/Silver Mining & Royalty
Gold miners have been fundamentally impaired by the inflationary macro as costs (energy, materials, humans) have outpaced product (gold) for well over a year. As with other markets/sectors, sentiment became overdone to the downside in September and from there (one of our key downside support targets at 230) we projected a bounce and with some stops and starts, the rally logically began.
(more…)
