Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Goldilocks Now, Deflation Later

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The NFTRH view has been for a macro transition from inflation (past) to ‘Goldilocks’ (present) to deflation (later)

Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been dubbed a “Goldilocks” (inflationary pressures not too hot, not too cold) transition, as inflationary pressures ease (the inflation has come and gone, while it’s lagging supply chain and services related effects linger on) and the former inflation trades under-perform.

There is a word for what supply chain and related services are doing and it’s called “gouging” by opportunistic entities squeezing the inflation hysteria for all it is worth. But I digress.

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Two Macro Market Signals Positive

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Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for change. Meanwhile, the Q4-Q1 broad rally continues:

Two positive macro market signals

Last week we noted two market leadership signals, one positive (Semiconductor and Tech leadership) and one potentially negative (Healthcare relative to the broad market). The potential bottom in the XLV/SPY ratio looks like less of a potential one week later (positive for the markets) as the would-be low got bent out of shape, and Semi and shorter-term Tech leadership are still intact.

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Gold/Copper Ratio Did Not Break Down

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The Gold/Copper ratio is intact and indicating risk for the cyclical global macro

We projected a rally to run from Q4, 2022 to or through Q1, 2023. It is technically intact with the Gold/Copper ratio trending down since last summer. What’s more, the global market rally has been led by Doctor Copper and companies that dig Cu out of the ground. So the Gold/Copper ratio has trended down the whole way, even as gold has ground out uptrends vs. some other commodities and stock markets.

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Inflation & Commodities

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#745’s Commodities segment, discussing inflation and the materials of inflation

Excerpted from the February 19th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#745)

Inflation & Commodities

The news is full of articles now discussing how food (Staples) producer prices are going to continue rising, how warehouse and distribution channels are pushing “inflation” higher, how charges to use cargo containers and transportation are all pushing “inflation” higher.

The inflationary acts were committed in 2020 and 2021. The inflation was inflicted then and is now history. What is happening now is a plethora of knock-on effects from the inflation. It’s lagging, sticky and in some cases opportunistic and greedy stuff that is not inflation but instead, the predictable after-effects of it.

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A Healthy Gold Stock Correction

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Gold stocks pulling back from the overbought risk area

Let’s take a look at a rarity for me; a public article discussing a nominal technical situation rather than bopping you over the head with macro fundamentals and macro indicators. We review technicals in gold stocks and other markets weekly in NFTRH, and not so much publicly because straight TA is the compass we use to navigate what the macro tells us. In other words, it is for subscribers to gain perspective and parameters ahead of time, not for me to regale the public with. But in this article I want to publicly go back to my first love, which is nominal TA (markets, stocks, etc.), which was how I started out longer ago than I care to believe.

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