Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Much Nicer Bull/Bear Spread (by Gary Tanashian)

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I am not sure what caused the anomaly that Biffermas noted earlier, but here is the chart updated as of yesterday at SentimenTrader.com.  It joins many other indicators pointing bearish to at least NOT BULLISH.  You should see the Investors Intelligence data at SentimenTrader.  It measures newsletter bullishness, and let me tell you folks, those trend followers are BULLISH to an extreme.

Rydexbb

Separately, have you seen the latest hero being trumpeted?  Here he is in full regalia, man of the year!

Tell me, just what was Time saying last year at this time?  What were the major media saying in March?  Patience my bearish friends.  Hope '09 may extend a bit into Full Hubris '10, but there is not much bullish going on from sentiment and risk/reward standpoints.  Nuh uh.  Oh, also check out the dollar.

Don’t Be Disappointed, Tim (by Gary)

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The euro is a non-confirmation of the bull rally.  And if this break (by weekly chart) in the gold-silver ratio (GSR) is real, then the pig is on borrowed time – literally.

Gsr

When gold rises against silver, it will do so along with a firming dollar and draining liquidity.  That would be the same liquidity that feeds the equity bull.

So, is this a breakout?  If the answer is affirmative, then the rally's days are numbered.  This does not mean things will grind to a halt next week, but the market is not going to continue to rise if the GSR does.

I am going to keep this brief, as I know some readers are bumming about the guest spots.  But I wanted to answer TK's post with a look at the GSR, which has not confirmed a breakout – yet.  —Gary

Uncle Buck and One Lonely Bull (by Gary)

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Pssst… come 'ere. Did you hear the one about the guy who's still
bullish the US dollar? Yes, he actually exists. No no, I am not
including the perpetually dollar bullish Prechter and Hochberg. They
are a given.

But aside from them, I heard a rumor that this
other guy actually exists. Fear not however Hope '09 participants; what
are the odds that this lone guy would be right against an entire
financial world on the other side of that trade?

Everybody from
government to monetary officials are stacked against the USD. Wall
Street and the financial establishment remain on the other side of this
lucrative trade as they pitch their wares to the traumatized public.
The gold bugs who think rising copper and oil is good for the gold
sector? They're on board and indeed, leading the charge. So why worry
about a dollar rebound? 

Well, the dollar has done some terrible
technical work on the big picture, which certainly informs NFTRH's view
for 2010, but in the short term all I see is what could be interpreted
as a break from a falling wedge (not shown on this chart that is
already too busy), a 3rd day above the SMA 50 (for the first time on
this systematic and grinding decline), RSI and MACD looking good and a
technical target up there at around the SMA 200.

Usd

If we are to
get a #2 leg in a mini cyclical bull (in hope), the dollar will first
rise and correct this mess, and that one lonely bull would be king of
the world for a short while on a short covering rally in USD. If not,
AGAIG '09 (as good as it gets) will continue to terminus and our
protagonist of one will join the rest of the world in staring down Bob
Prechter.  —Gary

China – Still Short this Pig (by Gary Tanashian)

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A few weeks ago I did a post on Slope looking at the topping action in China etf, FXI.  Well, I am still short this market (via FXP, along with shorts on silver and financials) against my remaining gold stock longs, and I am being as patient as I have ever been with short positions as these markets continue to roll.

The FXI chart is now doing some interesting things even as it has made no conclusive move below the supportive SMA 50.  Specifically, I noticed that the sequence of higher highs has has been broken on the latest short term peak.  This has not previously happened during Hope '09. 

Fxi

Now we await a lower low which, along with the lousy MACD would cause RSI to threaten its support.  A reasonable target on a breakdown would be around the SMA 200.

Have a great day all.  Gary from Biiwii.com and Biiwii.blogspot.com