Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold’s GOR Fest

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Even after the blow off in silver and gold's euro hysteria-induced blow off I did not expect a repeat of the 2008 crash in the HUI Gold Bugs index to happen given the state of the real price of gold (RPG) today as compared to the run up to 2008.  Wrong sir, the black boxes are apparently in control; or are they?  Maybe someone is controlling the black boxes.

Ben Bernanke has stated that he would control Treasury yield curves.  This is not tin foil hat analysis seeking to rationalize, it is merely stating what the world's most powerful monetary policy maker said he would do. 

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Reviewing the Macro ‘Play’

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There are signs in the recent jobs and ISM reports that the previously inflated economy is decelerating. Late last week, the clown running JP Morgan said stupid things about the smart [read: talented] people he has running his high risk trading operations. Europe is of course front and center as it continues to fall apart, with Gilts and Bunds rising on ‘safe haven’ buying and the bonds (debt) of Greece and other Euro basket cases declining toward their value, which is less than zero.

The precious metals appear to be watching for signs of outwardly promoted QE policy. But NFTRH has remained cautious on the timing of this pending a crack in the US stock market, so let’s review the big index.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Uncivilized Savages Unite! – Open Letter to Charlie Munger

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I love doing this newsletter in part because of the people who read it…  Here is subscriber Larry none too impressed with Charlie Munger's comments; comments that NFTRH did not take personally.  It just churned ole' Charlie into the analysis.  But Larry is pretty fed up with the buffoonery that is allowed to express itself in the mainstream financial media.

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Au vs. SPX

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NFTRH185 transitioned from an intensive breakdown of a developing bullish case for gold stocks into a more broad discussion, 'Transitioning to the Macro' from which this brief extract is clipped:

Saving the best for last, behold the Au-SPX ratio and its Cup (3 years in the making) & Handle (conveniently, a Falling Wedge with 5 distinct waves that people who count such things might like to see). A 5th wave could still be in the making down to 1.1, but this is a really bullish structure and I am not afraid to say so.

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Macro Discussion on FOMC Day

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This is a portion of the 'Macro Discussion' segment of the April 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole.  

Here on FOMC day I thought it would be appropriate since the Fed has the power to kick it into gear by pretending to be the guardians of sound financial policy for just one more meeting.  

This could eventually drop markets to technical levels where the plan is activated for both my 'bottom feeder' preferred gold stock sector and for the broad markets.  

Alternatively, if they go 'weak' today on top of the 'Apple relief' pump, you will know their level of desperation or intolerance of anything resembling a bear phase here in this US election year.  In that case, bullish potentials could be activated sooner rather than later.  The Fed is well aware of how tenuous the recovery born of inflation and credit really is.

I 'think' they are not going to blink today, but then again what do I know?  Ben Bernanke is the academic genius with all the answers.  His esoteric formulas on gauging the deflation threat may be telling him something different.  Today should be interesting.

Macro Discussion


This chart shows the Au-SPX ratio, declining within a Wedge to support. Regardless of whether or not stock bulls have one more pump left in them, this is a bullish setup for a pro-gold stance, at least in relation to the stock market.

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