Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

HUI-SPX Ratio Aims For Higher Levels

By -

Gold bugs were sent to the woodshed for much of the last year while
the regular stock market spent much of its time bulling.  This has
served two purposes.  First the over bullish (gold fever) sentiment
profile was cleared out in the precious metals and a over bearish
profile was at least partially addressed in broad stocks.

This is a potentially excellent setup for people who made the
necessary adjustments last year and now await a continuation of a trend
that appears to be in its infancy.  Let’s look at the big picture view
of the HUI-SPX ratio, which shows the severity of the gold stock
correction vs. the broad stock market.

hui-spx ratio


(more…)

Bernanke Plays it Perfectly

By -

Excerpted from NFTRH 202:

Bernanke Plays it Perfectly

From last week’s opening segment:

“Another way to look at it is
that the market’s fate appears to rest with the jawbone of the man about to
speak at Jackson Hole on Friday.”

From last week’s closing ‘Wrap Up’ segment:

“I think the theme now is that
if you are a trader and if you have profits it is a logical time to take some
or all of them.”

(more…)

What Do Small Caps and Semiconductors Think They See?

By -

The general Small Cap and the Semiconductor sectors are considered
speculative leaders to the broad US stock market.  In painting bullish
chart potentials, what do they think they see?

Small Caps: Still Bullish, But at Important Resistance

We observed a bearish pattern on the Small Caps and a bullish one on the inverse fund TWM in mid-May, noted the "kiss goodbye" to the topping pattern at the end of May, noted a precarious situation for bears in mid-July, a Bull Flag channel in early August and then the competing bullish patterns a week ago.

(more…)

Political, Economic Potholes Along the Yellow Brick Road

By -

MarketWatch has a piece today on the recent headline making noise out of the GOP about a return to the gold standard.

GOP's Gold Standard Idea Isn't Likely to Shine

"The gold standard, it is argued, would foster economic stability and
prosperity, primarily by creating price stability, fixed exchange rates
and placing limits government deficit spending as well as trade
imbalances. It would also limit credit-driven boom/bust cycles through
constraints on the supply of money."

Yes, absolutely.

"Opponents argue that the gold standard would limit the flexibility of
governments and central banks in managing economies, restricting the
ability to adjust money supply, government budgets and exchange rates.
Opponents also point to the inflexibility of the gold standard, which
may have contributed to the severity and length of the Great Depression."

In other words, a gold standard would limit monetary authorities'
ability to "manage" economies by manipulating money supplies.  As a
knock on effect, it would also limit their ability to provide welfare to
favored constituents like the first users and abusers of newly created
money, e.g. the big investment banks.

The article then goes on to make several points about why a return to
the gold standard is unlikely (I agree that it is unlikely any time
soon).  Here is the most telling reason, however:

"Money is now a matter of pure trust. American dollars still [bear] the
words: “In God We Trust”. But God is not directly responsible for
control of money; governments and central banks are. Politicians and
policy makers are unlikely to willingly cede the power that a paper
money system provides"

The article goes on to some silly stuff about a Tuscan spa, wealthy
clients and the covering of these clients in 24k gold.   So, we'll leave
the article now except to note that it also has a link to the ever
clear headed Mark Hulbert and his Bullishness rising faster than gold
Read it.  Gold is not the risk/reward proposition it was a few weeks
ago as it has raced to over bought levels in quick time.  But that's how
the barbarous relic rolls when it breaks out.  From Hulbert:

"Unfortunately, there’s some bad news to accompany the good: Gold timers
have reacted to bullion’s recent strength by eagerly and
enthusiastically jumping on the bullish bandwagon."

We anticipated this in the newsletter,
gave parameters for over bought upside and for a potential reaction to
correct the over eagerness.  A downside reaction, if indeed it comes
about could be an ideal spot for traders of the metal to initiate new
positions.  Holders of the metal should have taken long term positions
long ago and should calmly sleep through any near term turbulence. 

Back on theme, while there is talk about the gold standard by the
Republicans, they are just blowing hot air and taking advantage of a hot
button issue and relevant topic.  Don't hold your breath on a gold
standard even if Romney/Ryan gain the White House.  You and I, as lowly
market participants and economic survivalists need to read between the
lines in a functional way.

Gold is fine, as a standard or not.  As long as it remains an asset
class as opposed to official money, it will be subject to market forces
and the macro manipulations of current power holders.  These
manipulations can constrain the metal as Operation Twist has played a
roll in doing for a year now.  They can also launch the metal to higher
levels, when the manipulation is toward increased money supply.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com

Keep Perspective – It’s the Winning Trade Over the Long Haul

By -

The gold-silver ratio is declining with the broad asset market party as silver explodes higher, leading the speculative impulse.

We are managing the now confirmed bottom in the HUI, we are managing its upside targets (hint, we're just about at the first
one) and we are managing the probabilities with respect to the
breakouts in gold and silver… all in the newsletter week to week and
more dynamically, in email updates such as the one that went out this
morning.

For our general purposes here however, let's just note that the entire
endorphin release in the broad markets has come against a situation
where the noise level about QE has gone way over the top with the euro
leaders squabbling and jawboning and US Fed members alternately playing
good cop and bad cop to a market that doesn't really know what to think,
other than 'let's party!'.

I would imagine that there are a lot of people feeling like "shit, I
missed the bottom… I better get in!" and indeed, the AAII individual
investors are at a 4 month high in bullish sentiment:  See 5th item
down, here  http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm.

T bonds are UP, while Uncle Buck is down in the face of the euro, which
is UP and probably getting short-covered.  The precious metals are doing
something really constructive here, but what I will say is keep the whole
in mind, not just one or two particular areas of interest.  It's a
circus, a carnival and a casino all rolled into one and perceptions are
now being built and cemented in a mirror opposite to those that got
burnished into the investor mindset in the spring and early summer.

FWIW.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com