Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Famous Last Words

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Jerome Powell: “I think it’s pretty clear we’ve avoided a recession”

In response to a media member, who at Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we’ve avoided the recession that everyone [read: the media and its obsession with the supposed negative indications of the former Yield Curve inversion] was talking about a couple of years ago, the Fed chief replied without missing a beat. Not only have we avoided a recession, but it’s “pretty clear“.

“Pretty Clear”? I don’t think so. At least not in the direction you indicate. It is clear to me that the macro continues to swing toward the counter-cyclical, recessionary “bust” end of the spectrum. Below are two indications toward that. There are many other negative signals in play as well. But it’s only one article and I’ll update the two I consider among the most important to my macro analysis.

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Bearish Potential into Inauguration Day

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Signals in support of a contrarian bear setup in the US Stock

Let’s look at some pictures of the developing risk situation in the US stock market, in light of Inauguration Day upcoming on January 20, 2025, when the new president will be sworn in and his “Make America Great Again” jingle reconstituted. This group of indicators is far from exhaustive, as we use several other indicators and tools in the NFTRH service, many of which also currently forecast a coming phase when risk is to be realized, rather than just implied, as it is now.

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Gold’s Public Sentiment

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Gold’s public sentiment is generally over-bullish, but…

Gold’s public sentiment (graph & data from Sentimentrader.com) registered an extreme last month as the market was supposedly anxious about war abroad and the political war here in the US. Oh, and more importantly, there is the slowly decelerating economy and the Federal Reserve, weakening from its previously hawkish policy.

Gold and silver Commitments of Traders (CoT) data are also indicating over-bullish sentiment by speculators. But this all goes with a bullish market. I mean, just look at stocks. The stock market has been structurally over-bullish all year, periodically reset by little yips and twitches in sentiment. So why not gold?

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Healthy Correction in Gold Stocks From Two Perspectives

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A healthy gold stock correction is entering its latter stages

What we (NFTRH) viewed as a bullish but frothy sector – the precious metals, which had led the post-March broad rally into late October – has finally taken the haircut it needed. Or to use another turn of phrase, the precious metals correction, and especially gold stock correction, is sanitizing the sentiment and momentum profiles.

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Time Target Acquired, Election On Deck

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Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day

Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us is a legitimate Swami, able to read the future in pin-point fashion? None of us, that’s who. Least of all, those perma-wrongs that the media will one day tout in eyeball harvesting headlines.

e.g. Man who predicted 2025 bear market and recession has a new prediction

Problem is, they never mention how long “man” was wrong before he was right. Some off brand Swamis are wrong for vast majorities of previous bull markets. Some, for all of the previous bull markets. But the media rarely let a good hook go to waste. So for the sake of ever-important credibility, I’ll supply you one historical post (of many) stating “into and through the election” for the intact economy: February Payrolls…

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