Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Economic Contraction Road Map

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Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture. Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the little post-2012 expansion more vigorously than any other bearish leaning entity that I have seen, and earlier than most bullish entities I might add.

That was because of the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up → Palladium-Gold ratio → ISM upturn → Jobs upturn continuum we have been on. But that is a positive cycle within a much larger cycle that is very negative. Here’s the updated view of counter cyclical gold vs. cyclical commodities, which may be starting its next up turn. (more…)

Currencies and Gold, Big Picture

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Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by “The Hero” and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time. In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route. When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.

Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern. There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc. I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root. Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.

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Stumpf it

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Those promoting the bad GDP data should listen to Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf who, like this cranky little spot in the financial media here at biiwii, thinks the US economy is “stronger than people think”.

Wells Fargo CEO: The US economy will surprise you

All you have to do is open your eyes and look at corporate profits and manufacturing, to name but two major pillars. Jobs is another, even considering the constant debates about the quality of said jobs. (more…)

Schumer to Yellen: Keep Blowing That Bubble!

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Good old Chuck, too much is apparently not nearly enough. Chuck wants ZIRP-infinity stating that Ms. Yellen should “be careful” about raising interest rates.

Here’s what Sen. Charles Schumer wants to tell Janet Yellen on Tuesday

He ostensibly thinks that a lack of job growth is the “overwhelming problem” facing the economy. I think Chuck’s straw man is starting to come apart at the seams as the hay that stuffs it pops out in an embarrassing display. (more…)

NFTRH 298 Excerpt: US Stock Markets

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The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 298’s 38 pages of hard hitting, no b/s market analysis, which also included extensive work on the precious metals along with commodities, currencies, global markets and market sentiment.

NFTRH subscriber (7.6.14): “You should publish pages 15 and 16 of this weeks report. I would like to share it. It is a great summary of the current situation.” Pages 15 & 16 take it through the Dow chart below. I decided to go with the whole segment on US stocks. (more…)