Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Negative Feedback 2; Points Proven

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A couple weeks ago I wrote a post about some negative feedback (comes with the territory, if I am doing my job well enough) because I wrote about the very real economic performance that has so far come out of what I consider unsustainable and doomed to fail policy (and would be bullish for the gold sector I might add).

So I get to have some people call me a perma bear on one side and certain dogma defenders on the opposite side, both coming down on the writer who, right or wrong, is trying to clear out the b/s and just write the truth.

Now with the Gold Bug Psychology article I unsurprisingly I got the incoming from that camp as well. Even though I am twice the gold bug some of the dogma defenders are because I am not threatened by my position and am willing to state the truth as I see it. Nobody that I know of has put in the effort I have over the last decade in trying to describe gold as a value instrument and an insurance policy… and NOT a PLAY or a GAME. (more…)

Gold Bug Psychology Must be Neutered

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The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology. Well, every bear or bull market is about psychology, but the intensity of this dynamic has been something to behold in the gold sector over these last few years.

Psych 101

In early 2011 long-term interest rates were rising in response to inflationary pressures, ‘Bond King’ Bill Gross famously shorted the long bond, virtual mobs with pitchforks were storming the Fed’s castle calling for Ben Bernanke’s head and silver went to $50 an ounce, with calls for $100, $200, etc. All psychology my friends. (more…)

Currencies & Commentary

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Excerpted from the November 2 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 315. Public readers please filter with the idea that the style of writing meshes with much of what was included in the report that preceded it and hence, maybe appear to be a little vague in some areas.

Currencies & Commentary

In light of the news from the land of the rising sun and the sinking currency, let’s reserve NFTRH 315’s only real charting for a big picture monthly view of currencies, to which we usually give just a brief update, and then some misc. big picture monthly charts [not included in this excerpt] as we try to gain perspective on things that may seem illogical to our rational minds.

xjy (more…)

FOMC Cites Job Gains?

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Fed Announces End to Bond-Buying, Citing Job Gains –New York Times

Just a week or so ago one of the Fed’s three most celebrated hawks jumped the mic with a ‘shucks ya know, we could always delay the end of QE’ routine as the stock market plummeted. They don’t make hawks like they used to.

So what does the FOMC really mean, ‘job gains are good so we are ending QE’ or… ‘phew, that was a close one but the market took the Bullard bait and is back near the highs so we are ending QE… for now’. I’ll take ‘B’ Alex.

I seriously wonder how people other than promoters in the media and the financial services complex can continue to fall in line behind this transparent stuff. Maybe it is not really people after all but instead a bunch of connected black boxes, dark pools and other such robo systems simply programmed, without feeling, to follow the code. (more…)

Economic Snapshot

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 314:

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a  global customer base.  The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

An article by Doug Short published at Business Insider on Friday illustrates how the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) called for a recession in 2011 and was promptly made to eat that call first by Operation Twist and then by balls out QE3.  All the while as ZIRP has quietly whirred along in the background for 6 years. (more…)