Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Sentiment Reset

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Excerpted from an extensive multi-market NFTRH update (including global stocks, commodities and precious metals) yesterday morning:

Volatility. It is what we expected and it is what we have with Tuesday’s big down and upward reversal, down hard again yesterday and today very green in pre-market. This volatility applies to most assets markets including the precious metals. It is the nature of the beast during a news-rich summer, with many operators on vacation or semi-vacation (with some players not able to resist peeking?).

The S&P 500 has satisfied the 1st level of anticipated correction by weekly chart. It does not look like much, does it?

spx.wk

But it has been enough to launch pessimism to its highest level in many months. One definition of volatility: “liable to display rapid changes of emotion.” This is perfect for the whipsaw up and down backdrop going on by daily charts. (more…)

Ritholtz on Gold

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By Biiwii

I linked Barry Ritholtz’s gold bug swipe along with other items in an Around the Web post. Anything linked (or republished from guests for that matter) on this site is to be taken as 100% their view, not mine. You, the reader are tasked with using your own brain to consider, discount or ignore any of it as you see fit.

What do I think of Ritholtz’s view on gold, personally? I think ole’ Barry is picking some easy, low hanging fruit to use up virtual ink over at Bloomberg, per his contract (real or implied). I mean really, gold did not react to Greece and he takes that as a negative for the metal?

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Hype in the “Community” is Always Punished

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By Biiwii

IKN has been pointing out the stupidity of some Apple Watch gold consumption hype and most recently, the non-flight to quality amidst Greece blah blah blah… He is at least as sensitive as I am to this stuff. More so, maybe.

While I have personally tried to tone down the criticism of the cartoons in the gold “community”, I find it difficult with one writer in particular leading the naive into the GDX (with its “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge”), into the Indian Wedding and China demand stories and as a topping on the cartoonish cake, the ‘US jobs will drive inflation so make like the smart money and BUY GOLD before the big institutions do!’ garbage.

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USD; Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions

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USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.

So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low. It’s very simple. As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around. That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).

usd

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Gold’s Ratio Signals

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A brief snapshot of counter-cyclical gold’s macro signals vs. other metals (and broad commodities) that are more positively correlated to economies, using weekly charts…

Each week NFTRH updates many charts of nominal US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies over multiple time frames. But we also cover economic data and indicators, with the first macro chart below (Palladium vs. Gold) still barely holding its economic ‘UP’ signal from January, 2013. At that time a coming economic up phase did not seem likely, but PALL-Gold and fundamental information gleaned from a personal source in the Semiconductor Equipment sector gave us a good risk vs. reward on that stance.

While it can be argued that using an indicator like Palladium (positive economic correlation) to Gold (counter cyclical) is subject to the discrete supply/demand fundamentals of the two assets, it has worked to signal up and down economic phases, with the most recent shown in Q1 2013 (green arrow). This indicator has been whipsawing since topping out a year ago and the moving averages are near a trigger point.

pall.gold

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