Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Macrocosm Revisited

By -

Excerpted from the October 4 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 363. Reference previous articles on this theme, Macrocosm, Microcosm & Microcosm Expanding…

Here again is our representation of what a positive macro environment would look like for a bullish gold and gold mining stance. We created this theme in July for NFTRH 353.

macrocosm, nftrh 363

This view comes off as repugnant to much of the gold “community”, but I cannot stress strongly enough how important it is to tune out the fairy stories about missing COMEX gold (and silver), love-inspired demand from China and India, ‘rising US employment drives interest rates, incentivizes banks to lend and creates inflation, driving people into gold and gold stocks’ or any other angle out there that does not focus on declining confidence in policy making and its ability to control economies and financial markets. Every single one of these supposed fundamentals have already been proven wrong.

(more…)

Tinder Box

By -

By Biiwii

tinder box to ignite stock market sentiment rally?We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately. As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.

We have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).

(more…)

Gold vs…

By -

By Biiwii

Note: Well, a normal post became embittered and vitriolic by the end. What better place to post it than SoH, a renowned bullshit-free zone?

Note: Hey, go check out the new NFTRH.com. I think it’s pretty cool.

An update on Gold vs. stock markets, as at yesterday’s close. These charts have improved today, but there is still no conclusive change in trend in gold vs. stock markets. There could be some short-term chop if for example, SPX decides to rise again (I am not necessarily buying – or should I say selling? – today’s post-FOMC drop, though I have started to position that way, while holding a few longs that are doing just fine today) to the upside target of 2040 +/-.

[confusing language alert:  the above attempts to say that I still hold a few longs but started shorting the market on yesterday’s post-FOMC hysterics] (more…)

FOMC: Crystal Ball Time

By -

By Biiwii

Let me gaze into my crystal ball, with the confidence of a genuine guru* and the vision of a mystical Swami. Sifting through my notes about leading indicators, low unemployment, but also cratering public confidence, I see… (not that you should give a damn what one faulty little participant sees)… but bear with me now as I render the great forecast…

I see the Federal Reserve folding again today, perhaps with some stern words imploring us to stay vigilant for a rate hike coming before year end. In this scenario another small chink in the armor of impenetrable post-2011 confidence in these clowns would be had.

clowncar, brought to you by FOMC

(more…)

Leading and Other Indicators: Time to Hike?

By -

According to the amalgamation of ‘Leading Indicators’ to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree’s post on the subject.

leading indicators

It is and has been also time to hike based on employment numbers. This was supposed to be the last thing to get squared away before normalization, wasn’t it? LI is thought to lead inflation in the economy, which has thus far been held in check by a global deflation that is devouring funny munny sprayed from global policy hoses.

(more…)