Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Armstrong

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Aside from sounding consistently self-conscious Martin Armstrong seems to find a need to wrap basic and well known (or what should be well known) concepts in cloaks of mystery that only he – and his computer – can divine. I think this is a really smart man, but with an out sized ego.

Up-Down-Sideways? What is Going On?

“The Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM)” * is another way of saying that the more times a market bashes away at resistance, the weaker that resistance tends to become. It’s basic TA, can be applied to short or long time frames and it’s widely known and respected. You have seen me write things like that many times over the years. In reverse, the more times support is tested, the weaker it tends to become. TA 101, or at least it should be.

“It becomes rather amusing to what the so called professions end up constantly wrong so they start bruding and proclaiming this feels like 2000 or 2007 before the crash.”

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Gold, Silver, Stock Market

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I could write a long, detailed post trying to encompass global stock markets (generally bearish), commodities (bounce very mature) and bonds (mixed views, depending upon the flavor) but that is what I get paid to do each weekend in NFTRH reports and in private posts at the site. The beauty of public posts is that I can write as much or as little as I feel like writing. Today I feel like writing a little about gold (and silver) and the stock market. I also feel like using daily charts because I think time frames are pinching in for upcoming pivotal moves.

Gold is in a rather orderly Handle to a short-term Cup & Handle. Personally, I think gold and the precious metals complex need a correction because [insert CoT, Sentiment and over bought reasoning here]… But the chart thinks otherwise. If the Handle breaks upward and gold exceeds 1300, the measured target is to around 1370. It if goes the other way, watch for support beginning at the October high of 1191 down to 1180, figuring for wiggle room.

gold

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Inflationist Gold Bugs Driving the Rally

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[edit] The post began as a simple view of the inflationary dynamics in play within the precious metals market but as sometimes happens it, err… expanded. Please excuse the wordiness. But I would rather be wordy and try to make points backed in facts and data than backed only by my biased ego.

Not that I have proof (re: the title), but I do have some charts to help make the point that people who bought gold and gold stocks due to inflation fears have been driving the gold sector higher since March.

Back in January and February HUI rammed upward amid much doubt and skepticism because the general market backdrop was bearish and even more importantly, the commodity focused ‘inflation trade’ was nowhere to be found. At that time we were calling the deflation story “long in the tooth”.

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Gold Sector Checkup After the ‘Inflation Trade’ Bounce

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There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true over a short timeframe, at least in relation to silver and other commodities. Gold sagged while the more inflation-sensitive commodities bounced.

If you are following the gold stock sector, please put aside analysis focusing an undue amount of attention on inflation. The proper fundamental backdrop for improving gold mining operational efficiency is one where economies and stock markets are weak and liquidity is constrained. That is when gold (risk ‘off’ liquidity) rises relative to those things that are positively correlated to economies.

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Fear Not Gold Bugs, Gold Ratios Well Intact

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What has been going on since mid-February is a burst of the ‘inflation trade’ as evidenced by silver’s leadership in the precious metals sector. This opened the barn door for all kinds of inflated animals to flee into the light of day, and for commodity and inflation boosters to do their thing. As often happens with silver, things were pushed to and even through their limits. Silver went up, oil went up, base metals went up and stocks went up.

But what we should do is retire back to some of the things that actually indicated bullish for the gold sector well before the mini hysteria (and market relief) cropped up. A pullback/correction in gold stocks would be an opportunity.

Gold vs. Silver took a real hit and now is bouncing, unsurprisingly as USD makes a final support bounce attempt of its own. (more…)