Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Trump 2.0, Powell & Bond Market

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Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866):

He’s at it Again

Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater (of the absurd), the odds are near zero that the Fed will cut in June and very small they’ll cut in July. CME Group, which we have noted tends to be more of a windsock than an accurate prediction tool, currently sees the winds blowing to the tune of 97.4% “no cut” in June and 83.3% “no cut” in July. Come September they start to favor a .25% cut.

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Silver/Gold Ratio is Oversold

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Silver/Gold Ratio is Oversold, But There’s More To the Story

The Silver/Gold ratio is oversold, but silver is not “undervalued” relative to gold based merely on price

A common hue and cry from Team Silver Bug is that silver is extremely undervalued relative to its big brother in metallic monetary arms. It has to be, because its price is so cheap as measured in gold!

Not true. Silver’s price relative to gold is what the market and history – save for a few distinct upside explosions in silver and the Silver/Gold ratio – say it is. These dramatic upside events have largely been driven by macro considerations, not silver seeking out its true value before being pounded back down by some elaborate conspiracy.

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What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been

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Since Nixon Took USD Off the Gold Standard

The chart of SPX and gold shows that volatility was hard-wired into a macro market situation that had been relatively normal prior to August, 1971

I love looking at pictures. Pictures are how I form words, thoughts and stories.

This picture is a story of the time since the US removed the last bastion of soundness to its money, it’s funny munny that in its near-infinite ability to be printed at will (due to no hard asset backing) has funded all manner of societal and financial progress, as Keynesian policymakers no doubt hated dragging that heavy rock around, anchoring their lofty aspirations.

Since 1971 the stock market has been set free to create wealth as the economic funding mechanism became pure finance as opposed to sweat equity and productivity. Take a loan, build it… and they will come. Boy will they ever. Take another loan, and another, and another.

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Sentiment Turning Contrary Bearish

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What was good for the bullish goose (sentiment extremes in March-April) is going to be good for bearish gander as well

Excerpted from the May 11 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 862:

US Stock Market Sentiment

Dumb money apparently thinks that now that Trump is making a few sounds about making nicey nice with some trade partners, all’s well again. Dumb money is gulping down stonks even more aggressively now, while Smart money is fading. A degrading contrary-sentiment picture here.

market sentiment
Sentimentrader.com
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