For as many decades as I’ve been doing this charting stuff, it still amazes me. Take the oil chart USO below, for example. The simple trendline goes back for a full decade, and yet it quite accurately predicted a reversal point for the bonkers crude oil rally on Monday. If it keeps falling, watch for support at the horizontal:
Below is the EFA, which was neatly within a wedge for a full twelve months. The outbreak of war caused prices to break, for the first time, the ascending supporting trendline, and the ill-conceived rally yesterday and today has brought it back to the underbelly of the broken trendline. The bounce may well be over right about here.
I was tempted – – insufficiently, it seems! – – to buy RIVN yesterday morning. I was impressed that it was actually up in the face of so much selling. The past four trading days have produced green bars, which in this environment is remarkable.
The notion that the entire global market rallied (and, conversely, made oil plummet) based on the mumblings on your leader continues to astonish me. I have put my money where my astonished mouth is, however, and this morning acquired an irresponsibly large quantity of SPY puts. Here is the /ES over the past twenty-four hours or so:
The juxtaposition between right now and twenty-four hours ago is quite sharp. Markets are decidedly mellow, with equities down fractionally. The /ES, shown here, tried to burst above its peak yesterday, but that flopped. I remain astonished that the market’s entire mega-rally yesterday was due to any words that came out of the mouth of DJT. It’s stunning.
